**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月8日当周，有多少州将进入D4 （异常干旱） ？
2026年9月8日当周，有多少州将进入D4 （异常干旱） ？
10个或以上的州 99.5%
0个州 <1%
1-2个州 <1%
3-4个州 <1%
$409 交易量
$409 交易量
2026-09-10
0个州
<1%
1-2个州
<1%
3-4个州
<1%
5-6个州
<1%
7-9个州
<1%
10个或以上的州
100%
10个或以上的州 99.5%
0个州 <1%
1-2个州 <1%
3-4个州 <1%
$409 交易量
$409 交易量
2026-09-10
0个州
$91 交易量
<1%
1-2个州
$80 交易量
<1%
3-4个州
$58 交易量
<1%
5-6个州
$58 交易量
<1%
7-9个州
$58 交易量
<1%
10个或以上的州
$63 交易量
100%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
交易量
$409结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
交易量
$409结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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