Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority PSOE-led government has repeatedly committed to serving its full term, ruling out early dissolution and signaling a contest only in February or March 2027. No constitutional triggers exist for a 2026 snap election, including budget failure or successful no-confidence motion, as smaller parties have declined to back opposition efforts amid concerns over a potential PP-Vox alternative. Recent regional results, including the Andalusian vote, show a rightward shift in polling, yet Sánchez’s coalition has maintained stability without immediate procedural pressure. Traders therefore assign roughly 80 percent probability to no snap election before year-end, consistent with the prime minister’s public statements and the lack of acute political catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
14% 概率
$35,364 交易量
$35,364 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 概率
$35,364 交易量
$35,364 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority PSOE-led government has repeatedly committed to serving its full term, ruling out early dissolution and signaling a contest only in February or March 2027. No constitutional triggers exist for a 2026 snap election, including budget failure or successful no-confidence motion, as smaller parties have declined to back opposition efforts amid concerns over a potential PP-Vox alternative. Recent regional results, including the Andalusian vote, show a rightward shift in polling, yet Sánchez’s coalition has maintained stability without immediate procedural pressure. Traders therefore assign roughly 80 percent probability to no snap election before year-end, consistent with the prime minister’s public statements and the lack of acute political catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
交易量
$35,364结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority PSOE-led government has repeatedly committed to serving its full term, ruling out early dissolution and signaling a contest only in February or March 2027. No constitutional triggers exist for a 2026 snap election, including budget failure or successful no-confidence motion, as smaller parties have declined to back opposition efforts amid concerns over a potential PP-Vox alternative. Recent regional results, including the Andalusian vote, show a rightward shift in polling, yet Sánchez’s coalition has maintained stability without immediate procedural pressure. Traders therefore assign roughly 80 percent probability to no snap election before year-end, consistent with the prime minister’s public statements and the lack of acute political catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$35,364结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority PSOE-led government has repeatedly committed to serving its full term, ruling out early dissolution and signaling a contest only in February or March 2027. No constitutional triggers exist for a 2026 snap election, including budget failure or successful no-confidence motion, as smaller parties have declined to back opposition efforts amid concerns over a potential PP-Vox alternative. Recent regional results, including the Andalusian vote, show a rightward shift in polling, yet Sánchez’s coalition has maintained stability without immediate procedural pressure. Traders therefore assign roughly 80 percent probability to no snap election before year-end, consistent with the prime minister’s public statements and the lack of acute political catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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