**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于17% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
17% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
市场开放时间： Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$2,811结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
交易量
$2,811结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET**Traders assign an 84% probability to "No" for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026 primarily because Spain’s judicial process remains stalled despite the July 2026 CJEU ruling upholding the amnesty law’s compatibility with EU rules.** The Supreme Court continues to exclude his malversation charges from amnesty on grounds of alleged personal enrichment, keeping the national arrest warrant active. The Constitutional Court is only beginning deliberations around late September 2026 and is unlikely to resolve the appeal before year-end, after which the Supreme Court retains final interpretive authority. Optimistic scenarios among Junts allies and government sources now point to a possible safe return no earlier than autumn 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. Puigdemont’s brief 2024 appearance in Barcelona and ongoing exile in Belgium underscore the persistent legal and political friction, with no verified developments indicating an imminent, risk-free reentry before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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