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icon for 在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）
地缘政治·英国劳工领导力

在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）

icon for 在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）
地缘政治·英国劳工领导力

在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理 40%

2027年前无变动 37%

罗德里格斯 - 委内瑞拉代理总统 4.8%

迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统 4.1%

Polymarket

$264,911 交易量

内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理 40%

2027年前无变动 37%

罗德里格斯 - 委内瑞拉代理总统 4.8%

迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统 4.1%

Polymarket

$264,911 交易量

内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理

$29,096 交易量

40%

2027年前无变动

$87,922 交易量

37%

罗德里格斯 - 委内瑞拉代理总统

$12,360 交易量

5%

迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统

$11,188 交易量

4%

桑切斯 - 西班牙首相

$7,405 交易量

3%

泽连斯基 - 乌克兰总统

$6,649 交易量

2%

埃尔多安 - 土耳其总统

$10,105 交易量

2%

马克龙 - 法国总统

$9,989 交易量

2%

卢拉·达席尔瓦 - 巴西总统

$6,523 交易量

2%

特朗普 - 美国总统

$5,253 交易量

1%

习近平 - 中共中央总书记

$9,114 交易量

1%

阿巴斯 - 巴勒斯坦总统

$7,327 交易量

1%

普京 - 俄罗斯总统

$6,377 交易量

1%

梅尔茨 - 德国总理

$5,676 交易量

1%

勒科尔纽 - 法国总理

$6,835 交易量

1%

高市 - 日本首相

$5,436 交易量

1%

金正恩 - 朝鲜最高领导人

$4,953 交易量

<1%

阿尔巴尼斯 - 澳大利亚总理

$6,530 交易量

<1%

沙拉——叙利亚总统

$7,918 交易量

<1%

纽森 - 加利福尼亚州州长

$4,632 交易量

<1%

谢因鲍姆 - 墨西哥总统

$6,737 交易量

<1%

米莱 - 阿根廷总统

$6,885 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu holds the narrow lead in trader consensus due to Israel's scheduled October 2027 Knesset election and ongoing coalition fragility amid unresolved conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, alongside persistent corruption proceedings. Recent polls show his Likud-led bloc trailing opposition forces, raising the prospect of a government change before year-end. "None before 2027" remains nearly as competitive because most listed leaders face fixed terms or institutional buffers extending into 2027, with limited near-term electoral or legal triggers. Sánchez confronts corruption pressures and parliamentary challenges in Spain yet signals intent to complete the legislature. Lower-probability contenders such as Venezuela's Rodríguez or Cuba's Díaz-Canel show minimal movement absent fresh verified developments. The closeness reflects uncertainty over whether Israel's vote produces an immediate leadership shift or whether Netanyahu navigates another coalition formation.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$264,911
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

结算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu holds the narrow lead in trader consensus due to Israel's scheduled October 2027 Knesset election and ongoing coalition fragility amid unresolved conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, alongside persistent corruption proceedings. Recent polls show his Likud-led bloc trailing opposition forces, raising the prospect of a government change before year-end. "None before 2027" remains nearly as competitive because most listed leaders face fixed terms or institutional buffers extending into 2027, with limited near-term electoral or legal triggers. Sánchez confronts corruption pressures and parliamentary challenges in Spain yet signals intent to complete the legislature. Lower-probability contenders such as Venezuela's Rodríguez or Cuba's Díaz-Canel show minimal movement absent fresh verified developments. The closeness reflects uncertainty over whether Israel's vote produces an immediate leadership shift or whether Netanyahu navigates another coalition formation.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$264,911
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

结算方

0x69c47De9D...

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常见问题

"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 22 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理"，概率为 40%，其次是"2027年前无变动"，概率为 37%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 40¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 40%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）"已产生 $264.9K 的总交易量（自Jun 30, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 22 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）"的当前领先者是"内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理"，概率为 40%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 40%。紧随其后的结果是"2027年前无变动"，概率为 37%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。