Recent polling has positioned Jordan Bardella of the National Rally as the early frontrunner for the April 2027 first round, reflecting the party's sustained strength in legislative and local contests alongside Marine Le Pen's ongoing legal proceedings. Her appeal verdict, expected in early July 2026, keeps uncertainty over her eligibility and elevates Bardella as the likely standard-bearer. Édouard Philippe draws support as the leading center-right alternative capable of competitive runoffs, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon's confirmed candidacy and recent polling gains highlight left-wing fragmentation. With over two dozen declared or potential contenders, no single opposition bloc has consolidated, sustaining a wide distribution of implied probabilities ahead of primary negotiations and further surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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