Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月12日华沙的最高温度？
9月12日华沙的最高温度？
19°C 40%
20°C 34%
18°C 23%
21°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
15°C或以下
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
23%
19°C
40%
20°C
34%
21°C
6%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C或更高
<1%
19°C 40%
20°C 34%
18°C 23%
21°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
15°C或以下
$40 交易量
2%
16°C
$31 交易量
3%
17°C
$9 交易量
4%
18°C
$410 交易量
23%
19°C
$38 交易量
40%
20°C
$773 交易量
34%
21°C
$23 交易量
6%
22°C
$18 交易量
3%
23°C
$0 交易量
1%
24°C
$0 交易量
<1%
25°C或更高
$133 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,474结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,474结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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