Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate San Francisco’s September 10 high will likely peak in the low-to-mid 80s, with the 84–87 °F range carrying the highest market-implied odds. Marine-layer depth, onshore flow strength, and the timing of any afternoon clearing remain the dominant variables; a deeper or more persistent stratus deck would cap readings near 82–83 °F, while earlier dissipation and light offshore winds could push the maximum into the upper 80s. Ensemble spreads from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM show modest disagreement on peak temperature timing and magnitude, consistent with the closely matched probabilities across the 82–87 °F bins. Historical September extremes in the city rarely exceed 90 °F, supporting the low odds assigned to 88 °F and above.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月10日旧金山气温最高？
9月10日旧金山气温最高？
84-85华氏度 31%
82-83°F 25%
80-81华氏度 15%
86-87°F 15%
$26,305 交易量
$26,305 交易量
2026-09-10
71°F或以下
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75华氏度
<1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79华氏度
7%
80-81华氏度
15%
82-83°F
25%
84-85华氏度
31%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
7%
90华氏度或更高
1%
84-85华氏度 31%
82-83°F 25%
80-81华氏度 15%
86-87°F 15%
$26,305 交易量
$26,305 交易量
2026-09-10
71°F或以下
$895 交易量
<1%
72-73°F
$884 交易量
<1%
74-75华氏度
$2,771 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$2,232 交易量
4%
78-79华氏度
$2,798 交易量
7%
80-81华氏度
$3,252 交易量
15%
82-83°F
$3,793 交易量
25%
84-85华氏度
$2,395 交易量
31%
86-87°F
$3,530 交易量
15%
88-89°F
$1,032 交易量
7%
90华氏度或更高
$2,723 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate San Francisco’s September 10 high will likely peak in the low-to-mid 80s, with the 84–87 °F range carrying the highest market-implied odds. Marine-layer depth, onshore flow strength, and the timing of any afternoon clearing remain the dominant variables; a deeper or more persistent stratus deck would cap readings near 82–83 °F, while earlier dissipation and light offshore winds could push the maximum into the upper 80s. Ensemble spreads from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM show modest disagreement on peak temperature timing and magnitude, consistent with the closely matched probabilities across the 82–87 °F bins. Historical September extremes in the city rarely exceed 90 °F, supporting the low odds assigned to 88 °F and above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
交易量
$26,305结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate San Francisco’s September 10 high will likely peak in the low-to-mid 80s, with the 84–87 °F range carrying the highest market-implied odds. Marine-layer depth, onshore flow strength, and the timing of any afternoon clearing remain the dominant variables; a deeper or more persistent stratus deck would cap readings near 82–83 °F, while earlier dissipation and light offshore winds could push the maximum into the upper 80s. Ensemble spreads from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM show modest disagreement on peak temperature timing and magnitude, consistent with the closely matched probabilities across the 82–87 °F bins. Historical September extremes in the city rarely exceed 90 °F, supporting the low odds assigned to 88 °F and above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$26,305结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ETLatest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate San Francisco’s September 10 high will likely peak in the low-to-mid 80s, with the 84–87 °F range carrying the highest market-implied odds. Marine-layer depth, onshore flow strength, and the timing of any afternoon clearing remain the dominant variables; a deeper or more persistent stratus deck would cap readings near 82–83 °F, while earlier dissipation and light offshore winds could push the maximum into the upper 80s. Ensemble spreads from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM show modest disagreement on peak temperature timing and magnitude, consistent with the closely matched probabilities across the 82–87 °F bins. Historical September extremes in the city rarely exceed 90 °F, supporting the low odds assigned to 88 °F and above.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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