Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event peaking later in the year, are the dominant near-term driver pushing August global mean temperature anomalies well above recent baselines. This oceanic heat release, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent evidence of accelerated underlying rates around 0.35°C per decade, supports trader consensus around the >1.29°C outcome. Official multi-model ensembles from NOAA and WMO confirm above-normal temperatures worldwide for August–October, consistent with historical El Niño impacts that elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more. Market-implied probabilities reflect this alignment of current observations and seasonal forecasts, tempered by typical model spread in peak timing and magnitude.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月温度升高(ºC)
2026年8月温度升高(ºC)
>1.29ºC 79%
1.25–1.29ºC 17%
1.20–1.24ºC 6%
1.10–1.14ºC 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
4%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
6%
1.25–1.29ºC
23%
>1.29ºC
79%
>1.29ºC 79%
1.25–1.29ºC 17%
1.20–1.24ºC 6%
1.10–1.14ºC 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
<1.10ºC
$710 交易量
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$545 交易量
4%
1.15–1.19ºC
$458 交易量
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$342 交易量
6%
1.25–1.29ºC
$327 交易量
23%
>1.29ºC
$1,045 交易量
79%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event peaking later in the year, are the dominant near-term driver pushing August global mean temperature anomalies well above recent baselines. This oceanic heat release, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent evidence of accelerated underlying rates around 0.35°C per decade, supports trader consensus around the >1.29°C outcome. Official multi-model ensembles from NOAA and WMO confirm above-normal temperatures worldwide for August–October, consistent with historical El Niño impacts that elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more. Market-implied probabilities reflect this alignment of current observations and seasonal forecasts, tempered by typical model spread in peak timing and magnitude.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$3,427结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event peaking later in the year, are the dominant near-term driver pushing August global mean temperature anomalies well above recent baselines. This oceanic heat release, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent evidence of accelerated underlying rates around 0.35°C per decade, supports trader consensus around the >1.29°C outcome. Official multi-model ensembles from NOAA and WMO confirm above-normal temperatures worldwide for August–October, consistent with historical El Niño impacts that elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more. Market-implied probabilities reflect this alignment of current observations and seasonal forecasts, tempered by typical model spread in peak timing and magnitude.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$3,427结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event peaking later in the year, are the dominant near-term driver pushing August global mean temperature anomalies well above recent baselines. This oceanic heat release, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent evidence of accelerated underlying rates around 0.35°C per decade, supports trader consensus around the >1.29°C outcome. Official multi-model ensembles from NOAA and WMO confirm above-normal temperatures worldwide for August–October, consistent with historical El Niño impacts that elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more. Market-implied probabilities reflect this alignment of current observations and seasonal forecasts, tempered by typical model spread in peak timing and magnitude.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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