The 61% trader-implied probability for “No” on supplemental war funding stems primarily from the Senate’s compressed post-recess calendar and the explicit exclusion of any such package from the continuing resolution Congress cleared in early September, which extends baseline spending only through December 11. The administration’s late-June $87.6 billion request—centered on roughly $67 billion for Defense Department costs tied to Operation Epic Fury in Iran, including $21 billion in munitions replenishment—has encountered bipartisan resistance. Democrats on the Appropriations Committee, including Vice Chair Patty Murray, have cited unspent prior-year balances and fiscal priorities in opposing new outlays, while an earlier Senate war-powers resolution underscored cross-aisle skepticism toward further commitments. With no standalone or attached measure advancing toward a floor vote before the September 30 fiscal-year deadline, procedural hurdles remain substantial.