The United States and Iran have engaged in sustained military strikes and naval operations since February 2026, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz and degradation of Iranian military capabilities, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent developments include resumed U.S. airstrikes in July following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, repeated attempts at ceasefires and memoranda of understanding mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and others, and ongoing diplomatic signals from the Trump administration about potential deals or expanded U.S. oversight of the waterway. Trader assessments of an official declaration by any cutoff date are shaped by the pace of these negotiations, Iranian assertions of sovereignty over shipping lanes, U.S. force posture in the region, and risks of further escalation versus de-escalation through back-channel talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,766,427 交易量
2026-12-30
12月31日
3%
$7,766,427 交易量
12月31日
$793,793 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Iran have engaged in sustained military strikes and naval operations since February 2026, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz and degradation of Iranian military capabilities, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent developments include resumed U.S. airstrikes in July following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, repeated attempts at ceasefires and memoranda of understanding mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and others, and ongoing diplomatic signals from the Trump administration about potential deals or expanded U.S. oversight of the waterway. Trader assessments of an official declaration by any cutoff date are shaped by the pace of these negotiations, Iranian assertions of sovereignty over shipping lanes, U.S. force posture in the region, and risks of further escalation versus de-escalation through back-channel talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$7,766,427結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Iran have engaged in sustained military strikes and naval operations since February 2026, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz and degradation of Iranian military capabilities, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent developments include resumed U.S. airstrikes in July following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, repeated attempts at ceasefires and memoranda of understanding mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and others, and ongoing diplomatic signals from the Trump administration about potential deals or expanded U.S. oversight of the waterway. Trader assessments of an official declaration by any cutoff date are shaped by the pace of these negotiations, Iranian assertions of sovereignty over shipping lanes, U.S. force posture in the region, and risks of further escalation versus de-escalation through back-channel talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,766,427結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Iran have engaged in sustained military strikes and naval operations since February 2026, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz and degradation of Iranian military capabilities, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent developments include resumed U.S. airstrikes in July following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, repeated attempts at ceasefires and memoranda of understanding mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and others, and ongoing diplomatic signals from the Trump administration about potential deals or expanded U.S. oversight of the waterway. Trader assessments of an official declaration by any cutoff date are shaped by the pace of these negotiations, Iranian assertions of sovereignty over shipping lanes, U.S. force posture in the region, and risks of further escalation versus de-escalation through back-channel talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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