Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly introduced bills to exit the NPT since March 2026, citing US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and perceived treaty failures, with fresh proposals submitted to parliament in August 2026 by MPs including Ghasem Ravanbakhsh. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections and verification activities after February 2026, which has already limited international monitoring without formal withdrawal. However, the proposals lack clear endorsement from senior government officials or the Supreme National Security Council, and analysts describe them primarily as leverage amid stalled diplomacy. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding instead established a framework for renewed negotiations on enrichment limits and sanctions relief, reinforcing trader expectations that Tehran will maintain NPT membership through 2027 to preserve diplomatic options rather than trigger the three-month notice process under Article X.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
11% 機率
$384,133 交易量
$384,133 交易量
2026-12-30
是
11% 機率
$384,133 交易量
$384,133 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly introduced bills to exit the NPT since March 2026, citing US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and perceived treaty failures, with fresh proposals submitted to parliament in August 2026 by MPs including Ghasem Ravanbakhsh. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections and verification activities after February 2026, which has already limited international monitoring without formal withdrawal. However, the proposals lack clear endorsement from senior government officials or the Supreme National Security Council, and analysts describe them primarily as leverage amid stalled diplomacy. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding instead established a framework for renewed negotiations on enrichment limits and sanctions relief, reinforcing trader expectations that Tehran will maintain NPT membership through 2027 to preserve diplomatic options rather than trigger the three-month notice process under Article X.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$384,133結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly introduced bills to exit the NPT since March 2026, citing US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and perceived treaty failures, with fresh proposals submitted to parliament in August 2026 by MPs including Ghasem Ravanbakhsh. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections and verification activities after February 2026, which has already limited international monitoring without formal withdrawal. However, the proposals lack clear endorsement from senior government officials or the Supreme National Security Council, and analysts describe them primarily as leverage amid stalled diplomacy. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding instead established a framework for renewed negotiations on enrichment limits and sanctions relief, reinforcing trader expectations that Tehran will maintain NPT membership through 2027 to preserve diplomatic options rather than trigger the three-month notice process under Article X.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$384,133結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly introduced bills to exit the NPT since March 2026, citing US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and perceived treaty failures, with fresh proposals submitted to parliament in August 2026 by MPs including Ghasem Ravanbakhsh. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections and verification activities after February 2026, which has already limited international monitoring without formal withdrawal. However, the proposals lack clear endorsement from senior government officials or the Supreme National Security Council, and analysts describe them primarily as leverage amid stalled diplomacy. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding instead established a framework for renewed negotiations on enrichment limits and sanctions relief, reinforcing trader expectations that Tehran will maintain NPT membership through 2027 to preserve diplomatic options rather than trigger the three-month notice process under Article X.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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