Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate a low but non-negligible near-term risk of organization from an eastern Pacific disturbance, with formation probabilities around 10% within 48 hours and 40-50% over seven days under favorable sea-surface temperatures and reduced shear. Traders appear to weigh this against the basin’s climatological peak in early-to-mid August and the seasonal forecast for above-normal activity overall, even as no cyclones are active and earlier August conditions remained quiet. Model consensus supports gradual development potential before the August 14 cutoff, though steering patterns and any unexpected dry-air intrusion introduce uncertainty. Updated NHC discussions and satellite trends through midweek will likely refine these odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月14日前，太平洋或中太平洋盆地會形成熱帶氣旋嗎？
8月14日前，太平洋或中太平洋盆地會形成熱帶氣旋嗎？
72% 機率
最新
最新
2026-08-15
72% 機率
最新
最新
2026-08-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate a low but non-negligible near-term risk of organization from an eastern Pacific disturbance, with formation probabilities around 10% within 48 hours and 40-50% over seven days under favorable sea-surface temperatures and reduced shear. Traders appear to weigh this against the basin’s climatological peak in early-to-mid August and the seasonal forecast for above-normal activity overall, even as no cyclones are active and earlier August conditions remained quiet. Model consensus supports gradual development potential before the August 14 cutoff, though steering patterns and any unexpected dry-air intrusion introduce uncertainty. Updated NHC discussions and satellite trends through midweek will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
交易量
$798結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate a low but non-negligible near-term risk of organization from an eastern Pacific disturbance, with formation probabilities around 10% within 48 hours and 40-50% over seven days under favorable sea-surface temperatures and reduced shear. Traders appear to weigh this against the basin’s climatological peak in early-to-mid August and the seasonal forecast for above-normal activity overall, even as no cyclones are active and earlier August conditions remained quiet. Model consensus supports gradual development potential before the August 14 cutoff, though steering patterns and any unexpected dry-air intrusion introduce uncertainty. Updated NHC discussions and satellite trends through midweek will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$798結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate a low but non-negligible near-term risk of organization from an eastern Pacific disturbance, with formation probabilities around 10% within 48 hours and 40-50% over seven days under favorable sea-surface temperatures and reduced shear. Traders appear to weigh this against the basin’s climatological peak in early-to-mid August and the seasonal forecast for above-normal activity overall, even as no cyclones are active and earlier August conditions remained quiet. Model consensus supports gradual development potential before the August 14 cutoff, though steering patterns and any unexpected dry-air intrusion introduce uncertainty. Updated NHC discussions and satellite trends through midweek will likely refine these odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions