Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.3%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting stabilization after multiple 2026 exits including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Remaining officials face midterm campaign travel requirements and policy scrutiny, with Pete Hegseth drawing attention over military leadership tensions and Susie Wiles viewed as entrenched in her chief of staff role. Lower odds for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, and Doug Burgum tie to specific departmental pressures and confirmation dynamics. This distribution captures the market’s assessment of reduced near-term volatility following earlier turnover and the administration’s focus on continuity through the November elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於None before 2027 64.3%
Susie Wiles 7.8%
Pete Hegseth 7.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 4.7%
$65,986 交易量
$65,986 交易量
2026-12-31
None before 2027
64%
Susie Wiles
8%
Pete Hegseth
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Scott Bessent
4%
Doug Burgum
3%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Chris Wright
<1%
None before 2027 64.3%
Susie Wiles 7.8%
Pete Hegseth 7.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 4.7%
$65,986 交易量
$65,986 交易量
2026-12-31
None before 2027
$24,464 交易量
64%
Susie Wiles
$3,898 交易量
8%
Pete Hegseth
$2,427 交易量
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,303 交易量
5%
Scott Bessent
$2,965 交易量
4%
Doug Burgum
$1,114 交易量
3%
Lee Zeldin
$762 交易量
3%
Kelly Loeffler
$947 交易量
2%
Brooke Rollins
$797 交易量
2%
John Ratcliffe
$676 交易量
2%
Russell T. Vought
$676 交易量
2%
Marco Rubio
$677 交易量
2%
J.D. Vance
$717 交易量
1%
Jamieson Greer
$669 交易量
1%
Sean Duffy
$806 交易量
1%
Scott Turner
$477 交易量
1%
Mike Waltz
$886 交易量
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,069 交易量
1%
Doug Collins
$780 交易量
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,006 交易量
1%
Chris Wright
$872 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.3%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting stabilization after multiple 2026 exits including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Remaining officials face midterm campaign travel requirements and policy scrutiny, with Pete Hegseth drawing attention over military leadership tensions and Susie Wiles viewed as entrenched in her chief of staff role. Lower odds for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, and Doug Burgum tie to specific departmental pressures and confirmation dynamics. This distribution captures the market’s assessment of reduced near-term volatility following earlier turnover and the administration’s focus on continuity through the November elections.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$65,986結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.3%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting stabilization after multiple 2026 exits including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Remaining officials face midterm campaign travel requirements and policy scrutiny, with Pete Hegseth drawing attention over military leadership tensions and Susie Wiles viewed as entrenched in her chief of staff role. Lower odds for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, and Doug Burgum tie to specific departmental pressures and confirmation dynamics. This distribution captures the market’s assessment of reduced near-term volatility following earlier turnover and the administration’s focus on continuity through the November elections.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$65,986結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.3%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting stabilization after multiple 2026 exits including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Remaining officials face midterm campaign travel requirements and policy scrutiny, with Pete Hegseth drawing attention over military leadership tensions and Susie Wiles viewed as entrenched in her chief of staff role. Lower odds for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, and Doug Burgum tie to specific departmental pressures and confirmation dynamics. This distribution captures the market’s assessment of reduced near-term volatility following earlier turnover and the administration’s focus on continuity through the November elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions