Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,284 positive pools detected since June 16 across all boroughs—nearly double last year's pace—has shaped trader views toward 20–34 neuroinvasive cases. Only one confirmed human case has been reported as of late August, consistent with the typical mid-July to early-fall onset, while recent years show an upward trend from a 2012–2021 average of 16 annual neuroinvasive cases to 31 from 2022–2025. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns that boost Culex mosquito abundance and viral replication support the risk of exceeding the lower historical baseline, though underreporting of milder infections and variable late-season transmission introduce uncertainty ahead of peak activity and October surveillance updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於20例 43%
20至34 40%
35至49 16%
50例或以上 6%
最新
最新
2027-03-31
少於20例
43%
20至34
40%
35至49
16%
50例或以上
6%
少於20例 43%
20至34 40%
35至49 16%
50例或以上 6%
最新
最新
2027-03-31
少於20例
$801 交易量
43%
20至34
$699 交易量
40%
35至49
$1,458 交易量
16%
50例或以上
$282 交易量
6%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,284 positive pools detected since June 16 across all boroughs—nearly double last year's pace—has shaped trader views toward 20–34 neuroinvasive cases. Only one confirmed human case has been reported as of late August, consistent with the typical mid-July to early-fall onset, while recent years show an upward trend from a 2012–2021 average of 16 annual neuroinvasive cases to 31 from 2022–2025. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns that boost Culex mosquito abundance and viral replication support the risk of exceeding the lower historical baseline, though underreporting of milder infections and variable late-season transmission introduce uncertainty ahead of peak activity and October surveillance updates.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$3,240結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETThis market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,284 positive pools detected since June 16 across all boroughs—nearly double last year's pace—has shaped trader views toward 20–34 neuroinvasive cases. Only one confirmed human case has been reported as of late August, consistent with the typical mid-July to early-fall onset, while recent years show an upward trend from a 2012–2021 average of 16 annual neuroinvasive cases to 31 from 2022–2025. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns that boost Culex mosquito abundance and viral replication support the risk of exceeding the lower historical baseline, though underreporting of milder infections and variable late-season transmission introduce uncertainty ahead of peak activity and October surveillance updates.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
交易量
$3,240結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETElevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,284 positive pools detected since June 16 across all boroughs—nearly double last year's pace—has shaped trader views toward 20–34 neuroinvasive cases. Only one confirmed human case has been reported as of late August, consistent with the typical mid-July to early-fall onset, while recent years show an upward trend from a 2012–2021 average of 16 annual neuroinvasive cases to 31 from 2022–2025. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns that boost Culex mosquito abundance and viral replication support the risk of exceeding the lower historical baseline, though underreporting of milder infections and variable late-season transmission introduce uncertainty ahead of peak activity and October surveillance updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions