US Treasury sanctions policy and geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment on potential reissuance of Iranian oil export relief. General License X, issued June 22, 2026, authorized sales of Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21 amid interim talks, briefly lifting restrictions on banking, insurance, and transport while unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion in stranded inventory. The license was revoked July 7 following renewed tanker attacks and noncompliance, coinciding with expanded maximum-pressure measures including sanctions on over 60 entities tied to digital assets, shipping, and smuggling networks. Iranian exports fell sharply afterward, with Brent crude sensitive to any supply shifts from the region. Recent Treasury statements threatening penalties on major buyers, primarily China, reinforce expectations of sustained restrictions absent verifiable diplomatic progress, keeping near-term reissuance probabilities low in capital-backed markets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$296,662 交易量
2026-08-31
August 31
7%
$296,662 交易量
August 31
$207,780 交易量
7%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury sanctions policy and geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment on potential reissuance of Iranian oil export relief. General License X, issued June 22, 2026, authorized sales of Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21 amid interim talks, briefly lifting restrictions on banking, insurance, and transport while unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion in stranded inventory. The license was revoked July 7 following renewed tanker attacks and noncompliance, coinciding with expanded maximum-pressure measures including sanctions on over 60 entities tied to digital assets, shipping, and smuggling networks. Iranian exports fell sharply afterward, with Brent crude sensitive to any supply shifts from the region. Recent Treasury statements threatening penalties on major buyers, primarily China, reinforce expectations of sustained restrictions absent verifiable diplomatic progress, keeping near-term reissuance probabilities low in capital-backed markets.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
市場開放時間： Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
交易量
$296,662結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury sanctions policy and geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment on potential reissuance of Iranian oil export relief. General License X, issued June 22, 2026, authorized sales of Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21 amid interim talks, briefly lifting restrictions on banking, insurance, and transport while unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion in stranded inventory. The license was revoked July 7 following renewed tanker attacks and noncompliance, coinciding with expanded maximum-pressure measures including sanctions on over 60 entities tied to digital assets, shipping, and smuggling networks. Iranian exports fell sharply afterward, with Brent crude sensitive to any supply shifts from the region. Recent Treasury statements threatening penalties on major buyers, primarily China, reinforce expectations of sustained restrictions absent verifiable diplomatic progress, keeping near-term reissuance probabilities low in capital-backed markets.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
交易量
$296,662結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US Treasury sanctions policy and geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment on potential reissuance of Iranian oil export relief. General License X, issued June 22, 2026, authorized sales of Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21 amid interim talks, briefly lifting restrictions on banking, insurance, and transport while unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion in stranded inventory. The license was revoked July 7 following renewed tanker attacks and noncompliance, coinciding with expanded maximum-pressure measures including sanctions on over 60 entities tied to digital assets, shipping, and smuggling networks. Iranian exports fell sharply afterward, with Brent crude sensitive to any supply shifts from the region. Recent Treasury statements threatening penalties on major buyers, primarily China, reinforce expectations of sustained restrictions absent verifiable diplomatic progress, keeping near-term reissuance probabilities low in capital-backed markets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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