President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$669,967 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$669,967 交易量
2026年6月30日
$42,073 交易量
1%
2026年9月30日
$7,044 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,632 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$669,967結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$669,967結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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