President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and NNSA officials emphasized subcritical experiments rather than explosive detonations, the first of which last occurred in 1992. Official statements have reaffirmed the adequacy of the stockpile stewardship program, while internal planning references potential activity only through 2028. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect persistent technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers, including CTBT commitments observed by U.S. allies, congressional oversight requirements, and the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China. Any shift would likely require explicit new executive action, budget reallocations, or major geopolitical escalation within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$768,738 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$768,738 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,177 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,749 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and NNSA officials emphasized subcritical experiments rather than explosive detonations, the first of which last occurred in 1992. Official statements have reaffirmed the adequacy of the stockpile stewardship program, while internal planning references potential activity only through 2028. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect persistent technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers, including CTBT commitments observed by U.S. allies, congressional oversight requirements, and the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China. Any shift would likely require explicit new executive action, budget reallocations, or major geopolitical escalation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$768,738結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and NNSA officials emphasized subcritical experiments rather than explosive detonations, the first of which last occurred in 1992. Official statements have reaffirmed the adequacy of the stockpile stewardship program, while internal planning references potential activity only through 2028. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect persistent technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers, including CTBT commitments observed by U.S. allies, congressional oversight requirements, and the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China. Any shift would likely require explicit new executive action, budget reallocations, or major geopolitical escalation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$768,738結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and NNSA officials emphasized subcritical experiments rather than explosive detonations, the first of which last occurred in 1992. Official statements have reaffirmed the adequacy of the stockpile stewardship program, while internal planning references potential activity only through 2028. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect persistent technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers, including CTBT commitments observed by U.S. allies, congressional oversight requirements, and the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China. Any shift would likely require explicit new executive action, budget reallocations, or major geopolitical escalation within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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