US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$44,314 交易量
2027-06-30
2026年12月31日
10%
2027年6月30日
20%
$44,314 交易量
2026年12月31日
$32,579 交易量
10%
2027年6月30日
$11,735 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
交易量
$44,314結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
交易量
$44,314結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETUS law under the NDAA and CAATSA bars Turkey from the F-35 program while it retains S-400 systems acquired from Russia in 2019, requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses them plus credible future assurances. In 2026, the Trump administration advanced a roughly $700 million sale of F110 engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter and signaled openness to reviewing F-35 reinstatement, citing improved bilateral ties. However, Turkey’s reported attempts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state stalled by August, leaving the statutory barrier intact. The State Department has confirmed no compliance as of late July, amid congressional opposition and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These factors sustain uncertainty around any near-term reentry, with diplomatic progress on sanctions relief or system removal remaining the central variable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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