Marathon leads trader sentiment for The Game Awards Best Multiplayer at 22.5% implied probability, ahead of Gears of War: E-Day at 13.5%, in a fragmented field where no title exceeds the low twenties amid dozens of options. Bungie’s extraction shooter has built momentum through its March 2026 launch, ongoing seasonal updates, and steadily improving critic reception that positions it as the most played and reviewed multiplayer release so far this year. Gears of War: E-Day draws support from its active open beta and established franchise appeal in Horde Siege and Versus modes ahead of its October launch. Subnautica 2, The Duskbloods, Grounded 2, and other late-2026 titles add volatility, with outcomes likely to shift on final release performance, additional previews, and critic consensus before the December ceremony.