With no dominant frontrunner this early in the 2026 eligibility cycle, trader consensus has coalesced around a wide field where multiple actresses sit near 50% implied probability. Sandra Hüller and Julianne Moore lead at roughly 25% each on the strength of expected fall releases and proven awards pedigrees, while emerging names like Inde Navarrette and Renate Reinsve trade lower amid limited visibility. The absence of guild nominations, critics' circle results, or festival premieres keeps momentum fluid; historical patterns show Best Actress races often tighten only after PGA, DGA, and SAG-AFTRA signals emerge. Upcoming Toronto and Telluride premieres plus year-end box office and streaming data will likely shift these odds most sharply.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年奧斯卡獎：最佳女主角獎
2027年奧斯卡獎：最佳女主角獎
Julianne Moore 25%
Sandra Hüller 21.1%
Inde Navarrette 16%
Renate Reinsve 14%
$99,275 交易量
$99,275 交易量
2027-03-14
Julianne Moore
25%
Sandra Hüller
25%
Inde Navarrette
16%
Renate Reinsve
14%
Rachel Brosnahan
5%
Virginie Efira
5%
Sophie Okonedo
5%
Ruth Madeley
4%
Scarlett Johansson
4%
Léa Seydoux
3%
Michelle Williams
3%
Julianne Moore 25%
Sandra Hüller 21.1%
Inde Navarrette 16%
Renate Reinsve 14%
$99,275 交易量
$99,275 交易量
2027-03-14
Julianne Moore
$67,603 交易量
25%
Sandra Hüller
$2,950 交易量
25%
Inde Navarrette
$17,506 交易量
16%
Renate Reinsve
$10,339 交易量
14%
Rachel Brosnahan
$26 交易量
5%
Virginie Efira
$21 交易量
5%
Sophie Okonedo
$16 交易量
5%
Ruth Madeley
$206 交易量
4%
Scarlett Johansson
$16 交易量
4%
Léa Seydoux
$485 交易量
3%
Michelle Williams
$108 交易量
3%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With no dominant frontrunner this early in the 2026 eligibility cycle, trader consensus has coalesced around a wide field where multiple actresses sit near 50% implied probability. Sandra Hüller and Julianne Moore lead at roughly 25% each on the strength of expected fall releases and proven awards pedigrees, while emerging names like Inde Navarrette and Renate Reinsve trade lower amid limited visibility. The absence of guild nominations, critics' circle results, or festival premieres keeps momentum fluid; historical patterns show Best Actress races often tighten only after PGA, DGA, and SAG-AFTRA signals emerge. Upcoming Toronto and Telluride premieres plus year-end box office and streaming data will likely shift these odds most sharply.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
交易量
$99,275結束日期
2027-03-14市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With no dominant frontrunner this early in the 2026 eligibility cycle, trader consensus has coalesced around a wide field where multiple actresses sit near 50% implied probability. Sandra Hüller and Julianne Moore lead at roughly 25% each on the strength of expected fall releases and proven awards pedigrees, while emerging names like Inde Navarrette and Renate Reinsve trade lower amid limited visibility. The absence of guild nominations, critics' circle results, or festival premieres keeps momentum fluid; historical patterns show Best Actress races often tighten only after PGA, DGA, and SAG-AFTRA signals emerge. Upcoming Toronto and Telluride premieres plus year-end box office and streaming data will likely shift these odds most sharply.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$99,275結束日期
2027-03-14市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With no dominant frontrunner this early in the 2026 eligibility cycle, trader consensus has coalesced around a wide field where multiple actresses sit near 50% implied probability. Sandra Hüller and Julianne Moore lead at roughly 25% each on the strength of expected fall releases and proven awards pedigrees, while emerging names like Inde Navarrette and Renate Reinsve trade lower amid limited visibility. The absence of guild nominations, critics' circle results, or festival premieres keeps momentum fluid; historical patterns show Best Actress races often tighten only after PGA, DGA, and SAG-AFTRA signals emerge. Upcoming Toronto and Telluride premieres plus year-end box office and streaming data will likely shift these odds most sharply.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions