**Trader consensus on Louisiana Senate general election turnout remains tightly clustered across mid-range buckets (roughly 1.3M–1.6M votes) because the November 3, 2026, contest between Republican nominee Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis lacks major catalysts that typically drive exceptional mobilization in a midterm cycle.** Louisiana’s registered voter base stood near 3 million after the June runoffs, which saw only 17% participation compared with 32% in the May party primaries. With the race rated Solid Republican and no competitive statewide ballot measures or high-salience national issues dominating headlines in mid-August, baseline midterm turnout patterns and modest partisan enthusiasm gaps keep projected totals in a narrow band. Historical Louisiana Senate general election participation, combined with the shift to closed party primaries, further compresses expectations absent late surges in early voting or GOTV intensity. Separation could emerge from measurable early-voting trends, sustained campaign spending differentials, or external events that alter voter engagement in the final 60–75 days. Absent those shifts, the current equilibrium reflects the limited variance traders currently price into a low-drama, safely Republican contest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於130萬-140萬 44%
170萬+ 44%
少於 1.1M 44%
1,400,000-1,500,000 44%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於 1.1M
44%
110萬-120萬
42%
120萬-130萬
42%
130萬-140萬
44%
1,400,000-1,500,000
44%
1.5M-1.6M
43%
160萬-170萬
42%
170萬+
44%
130萬-140萬 44%
170萬+ 44%
少於 1.1M 44%
1,400,000-1,500,000 44%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於 1.1M
$0 交易量
44%
110萬-120萬
$0 交易量
42%
120萬-130萬
$0 交易量
42%
130萬-140萬
$0 交易量
44%
1,400,000-1,500,000
$0 交易量
44%
1.5M-1.6M
$0 交易量
43%
160萬-170萬
$0 交易量
42%
170萬+
$0 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on Louisiana Senate general election turnout remains tightly clustered across mid-range buckets (roughly 1.3M–1.6M votes) because the November 3, 2026, contest between Republican nominee Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis lacks major catalysts that typically drive exceptional mobilization in a midterm cycle.**
Louisiana’s registered voter base stood near 3 million after the June runoffs, which saw only 17% participation compared with 32% in the May party primaries. With the race rated Solid Republican and no competitive statewide ballot measures or high-salience national issues dominating headlines in mid-August, baseline midterm turnout patterns and modest partisan enthusiasm gaps keep projected totals in a narrow band. Historical Louisiana Senate general election participation, combined with the shift to closed party primaries, further compresses expectations absent late surges in early voting or GOTV intensity.
Separation could emerge from measurable early-voting trends, sustained campaign spending differentials, or external events that alter voter engagement in the final 60–75 days. Absent those shifts, the current equilibrium reflects the limited variance traders currently price into a low-drama, safely Republican contest.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on Louisiana Senate general election turnout remains tightly clustered across mid-range buckets (roughly 1.3M–1.6M votes) because the November 3, 2026, contest between Republican nominee Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis lacks major catalysts that typically drive exceptional mobilization in a midterm cycle.**
Louisiana’s registered voter base stood near 3 million after the June runoffs, which saw only 17% participation compared with 32% in the May party primaries. With the race rated Solid Republican and no competitive statewide ballot measures or high-salience national issues dominating headlines in mid-August, baseline midterm turnout patterns and modest partisan enthusiasm gaps keep projected totals in a narrow band. Historical Louisiana Senate general election participation, combined with the shift to closed party primaries, further compresses expectations absent late surges in early voting or GOTV intensity.
Separation could emerge from measurable early-voting trends, sustained campaign spending differentials, or external events that alter voter engagement in the final 60–75 days. Absent those shifts, the current equilibrium reflects the limited variance traders currently price into a low-drama, safely Republican contest.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Louisiana Senate general election turnout remains tightly clustered across mid-range buckets (roughly 1.3M–1.6M votes) because the November 3, 2026, contest between Republican nominee Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis lacks major catalysts that typically drive exceptional mobilization in a midterm cycle.** Louisiana’s registered voter base stood near 3 million after the June runoffs, which saw only 17% participation compared with 32% in the May party primaries. With the race rated Solid Republican and no competitive statewide ballot measures or high-salience national issues dominating headlines in mid-August, baseline midterm turnout patterns and modest partisan enthusiasm gaps keep projected totals in a narrow band. Historical Louisiana Senate general election participation, combined with the shift to closed party primaries, further compresses expectations absent late surges in early voting or GOTV intensity. Separation could emerge from measurable early-voting trends, sustained campaign spending differentials, or external events that alter voter engagement in the final 60–75 days. Absent those shifts, the current equilibrium reflects the limited variance traders currently price into a low-drama, safely Republican contest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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