Ongoing low-level violations of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of Israeli military actions against Lebanon. Israel maintains an expanded security zone in the south, has consolidated control over strategic ridges such as Ali al-Taher, and conducts targeted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in response to drone and rocket attacks on its forces. Hezbollah rejects the sequenced withdrawal terms tied to Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and its own disarmament in pilot zones. Fresh exchanges in August and early September, including strikes near Nabatieh and drone incidents, sustain the risk of escalation while scheduled diplomatic and verification processes remain stalled. These dynamics keep probabilities for near-term qualifying strikes elevated in the market's resolution windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$305,950 交易量
2026-09-06
9月3日
63%
9月4日
97%
9月5日
32%
9月6日
98%
9月7日
81%
9月8日
52%
9月9日
51%
9月10日
50%
9月11日
52%
9月12日
41%
9月13日
50%
9月14日
56%
9月15日
51%
9月16日
71%
9月17日
49%
9月18日
51%
9月19日
46%
9月20日
49%
9月21日
49%
9月22日
49%
9月23日
50%
9月24日
51%
9月25日
51%
9月26日
49%
9月27日
51%
9月28日
50%
9月29日
50%
9月30日
48%
$305,950 交易量
9月3日
$7,619 交易量
63%
9月4日
$622 交易量
97%
9月5日
$329 交易量
32%
9月6日
$18,235 交易量
98%
9月7日
$10,389 交易量
81%
9月8日
$41,635 交易量
52%
9月9日
$32,438 交易量
51%
9月10日
$13,064 交易量
50%
9月11日
$0 交易量
52%
9月12日
$28,714 交易量
41%
9月13日
$10,674 交易量
50%
9月14日
$33,998 交易量
56%
9月15日
$0 交易量
51%
9月16日
$9,390 交易量
71%
9月17日
$0 交易量
49%
9月18日
$0 交易量
51%
9月19日
$25,307 交易量
46%
9月20日
$8,162 交易量
49%
9月21日
$0 交易量
49%
9月22日
$0 交易量
49%
9月23日
$0 交易量
50%
9月24日
$0 交易量
51%
9月25日
$0 交易量
51%
9月26日
$35,655 交易量
49%
9月27日
$0 交易量
51%
9月28日
$0 交易量
50%
9月29日
$0 交易量
50%
9月30日
$29,720 交易量
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing low-level violations of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of Israeli military actions against Lebanon. Israel maintains an expanded security zone in the south, has consolidated control over strategic ridges such as Ali al-Taher, and conducts targeted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in response to drone and rocket attacks on its forces. Hezbollah rejects the sequenced withdrawal terms tied to Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and its own disarmament in pilot zones. Fresh exchanges in August and early September, including strikes near Nabatieh and drone incidents, sustain the risk of escalation while scheduled diplomatic and verification processes remain stalled. These dynamics keep probabilities for near-term qualifying strikes elevated in the market's resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$305,950結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing low-level violations of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of Israeli military actions against Lebanon. Israel maintains an expanded security zone in the south, has consolidated control over strategic ridges such as Ali al-Taher, and conducts targeted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in response to drone and rocket attacks on its forces. Hezbollah rejects the sequenced withdrawal terms tied to Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and its own disarmament in pilot zones. Fresh exchanges in August and early September, including strikes near Nabatieh and drone incidents, sustain the risk of escalation while scheduled diplomatic and verification processes remain stalled. These dynamics keep probabilities for near-term qualifying strikes elevated in the market's resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$305,950結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETOngoing low-level violations of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of Israeli military actions against Lebanon. Israel maintains an expanded security zone in the south, has consolidated control over strategic ridges such as Ali al-Taher, and conducts targeted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in response to drone and rocket attacks on its forces. Hezbollah rejects the sequenced withdrawal terms tied to Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and its own disarmament in pilot zones. Fresh exchanges in August and early September, including strikes near Nabatieh and drone incidents, sustain the risk of escalation while scheduled diplomatic and verification processes remain stalled. These dynamics keep probabilities for near-term qualifying strikes elevated in the market's resolution windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions