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icon for 納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？
地緣政治·以色列

納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？

icon for 納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？
地緣政治·以色列

納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？

$940,097 交易量

2026-12-30
Polymarket

$940,097 交易量

Polymarket

2026年12月31日

$9,987 交易量

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Naim Qassem assumed the role of Hezbollah secretary-general in October 2024 following the targeted killings of Hassan Nasrallah and designated successor Hashem Safieddine. He has maintained the position through mid-2026, delivering public statements on Lebanon-Israel ceasefire implementation, disarmament talks, and rejection of proposed framework agreements. Hezbollah has conducted internal organizational restructuring across military and political wings amid reported factional tensions between relatively pragmatic and hardline elements. Lebanese government restrictions on weapons and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to regional deals represent key external pressures. No verified leadership transition has occurred, though potential triggers include further Israeli operations, internal power shifts, or outcomes from U.S.-Iran or bilateral negotiations within the market resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$940,097
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Naim Qassem assumed the role of Hezbollah secretary-general in October 2024 following the targeted killings of Hassan Nasrallah and designated successor Hashem Safieddine. He has maintained the position through mid-2026, delivering public statements on Lebanon-Israel ceasefire implementation, disarmament talks, and rejection of proposed framework agreements. Hezbollah has conducted internal organizational restructuring across military and political wings amid reported factional tensions between relatively pragmatic and hardline elements. Lebanese government restrictions on weapons and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to regional deals represent key external pressures. No verified leadership transition has occurred, though potential triggers include further Israeli operations, internal power shifts, or outcomes from U.S.-Iran or bilateral negotiations within the market resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$940,097
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年12月31日" at 8%, followed by "12月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" has generated $940.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" is "2026年12月31日" at just 8%, with "12月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.