Russian forces have conducted sustained infiltration operations into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, since late 2025, relying on small-unit advances, glide-bomb strikes, and drone activity to erode Ukrainian positions in this key logistics hub within the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk defensive line. Kremlin claims of full city capture on July 3, 2026, remain disputed by Ukrainian forces and independent assessments, which show continued fighting, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian-held buildings in central and southeastern sectors, and no confirmed consolidation of the entire urban area. As of mid-August 2026, Russian units hold some southern and eastern outskirts with incremental gains reported near nearby settlements, while Ukrainian defenders repel daily assaults and maintain presence in contested zones. Market resolution hinges on geolocated mapping of the specific Royal Café Alex coordinates, with trader focus on whether infiltration tactics enable capture before year-end deadlines amid broader Russian efforts to isolate remaining Donbas strongholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
9月30日
25%
10月31日
52%
12月31日
81%
$1,152 交易量
9月30日
$60 交易量
25%
10月31日
$70 交易量
52%
12月31日
$1,022 交易量
81%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted sustained infiltration operations into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, since late 2025, relying on small-unit advances, glide-bomb strikes, and drone activity to erode Ukrainian positions in this key logistics hub within the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk defensive line. Kremlin claims of full city capture on July 3, 2026, remain disputed by Ukrainian forces and independent assessments, which show continued fighting, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian-held buildings in central and southeastern sectors, and no confirmed consolidation of the entire urban area. As of mid-August 2026, Russian units hold some southern and eastern outskirts with incremental gains reported near nearby settlements, while Ukrainian defenders repel daily assaults and maintain presence in contested zones. Market resolution hinges on geolocated mapping of the specific Royal Café Alex coordinates, with trader focus on whether infiltration tactics enable capture before year-end deadlines amid broader Russian efforts to isolate remaining Donbas strongholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$1,152結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted sustained infiltration operations into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, since late 2025, relying on small-unit advances, glide-bomb strikes, and drone activity to erode Ukrainian positions in this key logistics hub within the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk defensive line. Kremlin claims of full city capture on July 3, 2026, remain disputed by Ukrainian forces and independent assessments, which show continued fighting, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian-held buildings in central and southeastern sectors, and no confirmed consolidation of the entire urban area. As of mid-August 2026, Russian units hold some southern and eastern outskirts with incremental gains reported near nearby settlements, while Ukrainian defenders repel daily assaults and maintain presence in contested zones. Market resolution hinges on geolocated mapping of the specific Royal Café Alex coordinates, with trader focus on whether infiltration tactics enable capture before year-end deadlines amid broader Russian efforts to isolate remaining Donbas strongholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
交易量
$1,152結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted sustained infiltration operations into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, since late 2025, relying on small-unit advances, glide-bomb strikes, and drone activity to erode Ukrainian positions in this key logistics hub within the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk defensive line. Kremlin claims of full city capture on July 3, 2026, remain disputed by Ukrainian forces and independent assessments, which show continued fighting, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian-held buildings in central and southeastern sectors, and no confirmed consolidation of the entire urban area. As of mid-August 2026, Russian units hold some southern and eastern outskirts with incremental gains reported near nearby settlements, while Ukrainian defenders repel daily assaults and maintain presence in contested zones. Market resolution hinges on geolocated mapping of the specific Royal Café Alex coordinates, with trader focus on whether infiltration tactics enable capture before year-end deadlines amid broader Russian efforts to isolate remaining Donbas strongholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions