Recent Houthi missile strikes on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Mocha port in early August 2026 have elevated war-risk insurance premiums and prompted further rerouting by major carriers, sustaining suppressed weekly transits well below pre-2023 baselines. Trader consensus around the closely matched 160-179 and 180-199 bands reflects uncertainty over whether recent volume stabilization near 170-190 ships persists or dips amid ongoing Yemen tensions tied to the Iran conflict ceasefire. Key swing factors include daily attack frequency, bunker fuel and freight rate differentials versus Cape of Good Hope routing, and any immediate de-escalation signals before resolution. These dynamics underscore how geopolitical risk premia directly shape maritime throughput probabilities priced by skin-in-the-game capital.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於160-179 39%
180-199 36%
200艘以上 23%
少於160艘 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
少於160艘
16%
160-179
39%
180-199
36%
200艘以上
23%
160-179 39%
180-199 36%
200艘以上 23%
少於160艘 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
少於160艘
$352 交易量
16%
160-179
$0 交易量
39%
180-199
$0 交易量
36%
200艘以上
$0 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Mocha port in early August 2026 have elevated war-risk insurance premiums and prompted further rerouting by major carriers, sustaining suppressed weekly transits well below pre-2023 baselines. Trader consensus around the closely matched 160-179 and 180-199 bands reflects uncertainty over whether recent volume stabilization near 170-190 ships persists or dips amid ongoing Yemen tensions tied to the Iran conflict ceasefire. Key swing factors include daily attack frequency, bunker fuel and freight rate differentials versus Cape of Good Hope routing, and any immediate de-escalation signals before resolution. These dynamics underscore how geopolitical risk premia directly shape maritime throughput probabilities priced by skin-in-the-game capital.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$352結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Mocha port in early August 2026 have elevated war-risk insurance premiums and prompted further rerouting by major carriers, sustaining suppressed weekly transits well below pre-2023 baselines. Trader consensus around the closely matched 160-179 and 180-199 bands reflects uncertainty over whether recent volume stabilization near 170-190 ships persists or dips amid ongoing Yemen tensions tied to the Iran conflict ceasefire. Key swing factors include daily attack frequency, bunker fuel and freight rate differentials versus Cape of Good Hope routing, and any immediate de-escalation signals before resolution. These dynamics underscore how geopolitical risk premia directly shape maritime throughput probabilities priced by skin-in-the-game capital.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$352結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi missile strikes on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Mocha port in early August 2026 have elevated war-risk insurance premiums and prompted further rerouting by major carriers, sustaining suppressed weekly transits well below pre-2023 baselines. Trader consensus around the closely matched 160-179 and 180-199 bands reflects uncertainty over whether recent volume stabilization near 170-190 ships persists or dips amid ongoing Yemen tensions tied to the Iran conflict ceasefire. Key swing factors include daily attack frequency, bunker fuel and freight rate differentials versus Cape of Good Hope routing, and any immediate de-escalation signals before resolution. These dynamics underscore how geopolitical risk premia directly shape maritime throughput probabilities priced by skin-in-the-game capital.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions