Recent short-range model guidance from sources like the GFS and ECMWF shows Warsaw likely peaking near 24–26 °C on August 13 under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, after a cooler front crossed the region earlier in the week. This positions 24 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 23 °C and 25 °C close behind due to typical ensemble spread of 1–2 °C in 48-hour forecasts and sensitivity to exact cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing. Local factors such as Warsaw’s urban heat island and the precise siting of the official Chopin Airport station can nudge readings by 0.5–1 °C, while climatological August maxima average 23–25 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities among these tightly bunched outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月13日華沙的最高溫度？
8月13日華沙的最高溫度？
24°C 42%
25°C 29%
23°C 24%
22°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
24%
24°C
42%
25°C
29%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C或以上
1%
24°C 42%
25°C 29%
23°C 24%
22°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
20°C或以下
$33 交易量
<1%
21°C
$380 交易量
1%
22°C
$289 交易量
6%
23°C
$172 交易量
24%
24°C
$422 交易量
42%
25°C
$252 交易量
29%
26°C
$17 交易量
5%
27°C
$28 交易量
2%
28°C
$12 交易量
2%
29°C
$31 交易量
1%
30°C或以上
$185 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from sources like the GFS and ECMWF shows Warsaw likely peaking near 24–26 °C on August 13 under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, after a cooler front crossed the region earlier in the week. This positions 24 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 23 °C and 25 °C close behind due to typical ensemble spread of 1–2 °C in 48-hour forecasts and sensitivity to exact cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing. Local factors such as Warsaw’s urban heat island and the precise siting of the official Chopin Airport station can nudge readings by 0.5–1 °C, while climatological August maxima average 23–25 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities among these tightly bunched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,822結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from sources like the GFS and ECMWF shows Warsaw likely peaking near 24–26 °C on August 13 under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, after a cooler front crossed the region earlier in the week. This positions 24 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 23 °C and 25 °C close behind due to typical ensemble spread of 1–2 °C in 48-hour forecasts and sensitivity to exact cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing. Local factors such as Warsaw’s urban heat island and the precise siting of the official Chopin Airport station can nudge readings by 0.5–1 °C, while climatological August maxima average 23–25 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities among these tightly bunched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,822結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent short-range model guidance from sources like the GFS and ECMWF shows Warsaw likely peaking near 24–26 °C on August 13 under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, after a cooler front crossed the region earlier in the week. This positions 24 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 23 °C and 25 °C close behind due to typical ensemble spread of 1–2 °C in 48-hour forecasts and sensitivity to exact cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing. Local factors such as Warsaw’s urban heat island and the precise siting of the official Chopin Airport station can nudge readings by 0.5–1 °C, while climatological August maxima average 23–25 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities among these tightly bunched outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions