**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise-missile sites, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb, part of broader operations tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, yet left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has exercised de facto sovereignty over the island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, maintaining IRGC garrisons, missile deployments, and naval facilities despite longstanding UAE territorial claims and periodic GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice. Recent IRGC missile system placements and Iranian official assertions of permanent sovereignty have reinforced the status quo, while trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns very low probability to any shift in primary governmental or military authority by the late-August resolution date. Ongoing diplomatic friction and conflict dynamics around Hormuz remain the main variables that could still influence short-term developments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$52,985 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
<1%
$52,985 交易量
8月31日
$30,476 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise-missile sites, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb, part of broader operations tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, yet left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has exercised de facto sovereignty over the island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, maintaining IRGC garrisons, missile deployments, and naval facilities despite longstanding UAE territorial claims and periodic GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice. Recent IRGC missile system placements and Iranian official assertions of permanent sovereignty have reinforced the status quo, while trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns very low probability to any shift in primary governmental or military authority by the late-August resolution date. Ongoing diplomatic friction and conflict dynamics around Hormuz remain the main variables that could still influence short-term developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
交易量
$52,985結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise-missile sites, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb, part of broader operations tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, yet left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has exercised de facto sovereignty over the island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, maintaining IRGC garrisons, missile deployments, and naval facilities despite longstanding UAE territorial claims and periodic GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice. Recent IRGC missile system placements and Iranian official assertions of permanent sovereignty have reinforced the status quo, while trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns very low probability to any shift in primary governmental or military authority by the late-August resolution date. Ongoing diplomatic friction and conflict dynamics around Hormuz remain the main variables that could still influence short-term developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$52,985結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise-missile sites, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb, part of broader operations tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, yet left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has exercised de facto sovereignty over the island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, maintaining IRGC garrisons, missile deployments, and naval facilities despite longstanding UAE territorial claims and periodic GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice. Recent IRGC missile system placements and Iranian official assertions of permanent sovereignty have reinforced the status quo, while trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns very low probability to any shift in primary governmental or military authority by the late-August resolution date. Ongoing diplomatic friction and conflict dynamics around Hormuz remain the main variables that could still influence short-term developments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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