Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by Middle East-related energy price spikes and supply disruptions, anchors trader sentiment for the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle. The July 28–29 hold at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and subsequent minutes highlighted broad price pressures, shifting focus to the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. Market-implied odds favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 55.5% as the baseline path, reflecting data dependence and weaker recent payrolls, while the 41.5% "Other" bucket captures elevated risks of at least one 25-basis-point hike if CPI and PCE readings fail to moderate. Upcoming August inflation releases and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pause–Pause–Pause 56%
Other 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$723,801 交易量
$723,801 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
56%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
42%
Pause–Pause–Pause 56%
Other 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$723,801 交易量
$723,801 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$239,531 交易量
56%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60,116 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 交易量
<1%
Other
$313,880 交易量
42%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by Middle East-related energy price spikes and supply disruptions, anchors trader sentiment for the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle. The July 28–29 hold at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and subsequent minutes highlighted broad price pressures, shifting focus to the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. Market-implied odds favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 55.5% as the baseline path, reflecting data dependence and weaker recent payrolls, while the 41.5% "Other" bucket captures elevated risks of at least one 25-basis-point hike if CPI and PCE readings fail to moderate. Upcoming August inflation releases and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$723,801結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by Middle East-related energy price spikes and supply disruptions, anchors trader sentiment for the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle. The July 28–29 hold at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and subsequent minutes highlighted broad price pressures, shifting focus to the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. Market-implied odds favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 55.5% as the baseline path, reflecting data dependence and weaker recent payrolls, while the 41.5% "Other" bucket captures elevated risks of at least one 25-basis-point hike if CPI and PCE readings fail to moderate. Upcoming August inflation releases and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$723,801結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by Middle East-related energy price spikes and supply disruptions, anchors trader sentiment for the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle. The July 28–29 hold at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and subsequent minutes highlighted broad price pressures, shifting focus to the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. Market-implied odds favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 55.5% as the baseline path, reflecting data dependence and weaker recent payrolls, while the 41.5% "Other" bucket captures elevated risks of at least one 25-basis-point hike if CPI and PCE readings fail to moderate. Upcoming August inflation releases and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions