**Recent polling trends show the CDU maintaining a consistent edge over the Grüne ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys from August place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with the CDU ahead by 2–4 points in nearly every major release (Forsa, INSA, Civey, Infratest dimap). This gap has held through candidate changes and coalition dynamics, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner stepped aside. The CDU’s position as the larger former governing party, combined with stable voter support in the low-to-mid teens for the Greens, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 79% implied probability for CDU finishing ahead. Late-campaign shifts remain possible given the tight multi-party race involving the Linke and AfD, but current evidence from primary polling data continues to favor the CDU over the Greens on direct vote share.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於基民盟
79% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
基民盟
79% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling trends show the CDU maintaining a consistent edge over the Grüne ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys from August place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with the CDU ahead by 2–4 points in nearly every major release (Forsa, INSA, Civey, Infratest dimap). This gap has held through candidate changes and coalition dynamics, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner stepped aside.
The CDU’s position as the larger former governing party, combined with stable voter support in the low-to-mid teens for the Greens, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 79% implied probability for CDU finishing ahead. Late-campaign shifts remain possible given the tight multi-party race involving the Linke and AfD, but current evidence from primary polling data continues to favor the CDU over the Greens on direct vote share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
交易量
$2,105結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling trends show the CDU maintaining a consistent edge over the Grüne ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys from August place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with the CDU ahead by 2–4 points in nearly every major release (Forsa, INSA, Civey, Infratest dimap). This gap has held through candidate changes and coalition dynamics, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner stepped aside.
The CDU’s position as the larger former governing party, combined with stable voter support in the low-to-mid teens for the Greens, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 79% implied probability for CDU finishing ahead. Late-campaign shifts remain possible given the tight multi-party race involving the Linke and AfD, but current evidence from primary polling data continues to favor the CDU over the Greens on direct vote share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$2,105結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling trends show the CDU maintaining a consistent edge over the Grüne ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys from August place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with the CDU ahead by 2–4 points in nearly every major release (Forsa, INSA, Civey, Infratest dimap). This gap has held through candidate changes and coalition dynamics, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner stepped aside. The CDU’s position as the larger former governing party, combined with stable voter support in the low-to-mid teens for the Greens, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 79% implied probability for CDU finishing ahead. Late-campaign shifts remain possible given the tight multi-party race involving the Linke and AfD, but current evidence from primary polling data continues to favor the CDU over the Greens on direct vote share.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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