**A Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 restricting presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act sharply reduced projected customs revenues and triggered importer refund claims, undermining the fiscal basis for a tariff dividend.** No legislation authorizing payments has advanced through Congress, despite proposals such as the American Worker Rebate Act and repeated administration statements linking the idea to tariff receipts. Independent analyses consistently show estimated program costs of $300–600 billion exceeding expected 2026 tariff collections, even before legal setbacks. With the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline approaching and no formal program enacted via statute or executive action, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.”