The Iranian regime's resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security services sustaining control amid protests, economic strain, and military reorganization. U.S. intelligence assessments and Israeli evaluations from March 2026 onward have consistently found no near-term risk of regime failure, citing cohesive institutions and suppressed domestic opposition. As of mid-August 2026, the regime remains engaged in diplomacy and conflict management over issues like the Strait of Hormuz, with no verified indicators of imminent systemic breakdown in the narrow remaining window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
7% khả năng
$24,795,351 KL.
$24,795,351 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Có
7% khả năng
$24,795,351 KL.
$24,795,351 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security services sustaining control amid protests, economic strain, and military reorganization. U.S. intelligence assessments and Israeli evaluations from March 2026 onward have consistently found no near-term risk of regime failure, citing cohesive institutions and suppressed domestic opposition. As of mid-August 2026, the regime remains engaged in diplomacy and conflict management over issues like the Strait of Hormuz, with no verified indicators of imminent systemic breakdown in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,795,351Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security services sustaining control amid protests, economic strain, and military reorganization. U.S. intelligence assessments and Israeli evaluations from March 2026 onward have consistently found no near-term risk of regime failure, citing cohesive institutions and suppressed domestic opposition. As of mid-August 2026, the regime remains engaged in diplomacy and conflict management over issues like the Strait of Hormuz, with no verified indicators of imminent systemic breakdown in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$24,795,351Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security services sustaining control amid protests, economic strain, and military reorganization. U.S. intelligence assessments and Israeli evaluations from March 2026 onward have consistently found no near-term risk of regime failure, citing cohesive institutions and suppressed domestic opposition. As of mid-August 2026, the regime remains engaged in diplomacy and conflict management over issues like the Strait of Hormuz, with no verified indicators of imminent systemic breakdown in the narrow remaining window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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