Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with the Kremlin stating in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks despite openness to negotiations facilitated by Turkey. Earlier U.S.-brokered pauses, including a three-day ceasefire in May tied to a large-scale prisoner exchange, did not extend into sustained de-escalation. Core sticking points continue to center on territorial control, security guarantees, sanctions relief, and verification mechanisms, with Russia emphasizing demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine rejecting terms that would limit its defensive alliances. Frontline military activity persists without major shifts, and no new high-level summits or bilateral breakthroughs have materialized in recent weeks to alter the trajectory toward a comprehensive agreement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,918,831 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
11%
August 31
3%
December 31
24%
$5,918,831 KL.
October 31
$848,243 KL.
11%
August 31
$391,529 KL.
3%
December 31
$2,141,727 KL.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with the Kremlin stating in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks despite openness to negotiations facilitated by Turkey. Earlier U.S.-brokered pauses, including a three-day ceasefire in May tied to a large-scale prisoner exchange, did not extend into sustained de-escalation. Core sticking points continue to center on territorial control, security guarantees, sanctions relief, and verification mechanisms, with Russia emphasizing demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine rejecting terms that would limit its defensive alliances. Frontline military activity persists without major shifts, and no new high-level summits or bilateral breakthroughs have materialized in recent weeks to alter the trajectory toward a comprehensive agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,918,831Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with the Kremlin stating in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks despite openness to negotiations facilitated by Turkey. Earlier U.S.-brokered pauses, including a three-day ceasefire in May tied to a large-scale prisoner exchange, did not extend into sustained de-escalation. Core sticking points continue to center on territorial control, security guarantees, sanctions relief, and verification mechanisms, with Russia emphasizing demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine rejecting terms that would limit its defensive alliances. Frontline military activity persists without major shifts, and no new high-level summits or bilateral breakthroughs have materialized in recent weeks to alter the trajectory toward a comprehensive agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$5,918,831Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with the Kremlin stating in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks despite openness to negotiations facilitated by Turkey. Earlier U.S.-brokered pauses, including a three-day ceasefire in May tied to a large-scale prisoner exchange, did not extend into sustained de-escalation. Core sticking points continue to center on territorial control, security guarantees, sanctions relief, and verification mechanisms, with Russia emphasizing demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine rejecting terms that would limit its defensive alliances. Frontline military activity persists without major shifts, and no new high-level summits or bilateral breakthroughs have materialized in recent weeks to alter the trajectory toward a comprehensive agreement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp