Persistent stalemate in U.S.-brokered talks, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related commitments, underpins traders' near-certain view that Ukraine and Russia will not sign a peace deal by August 31. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including proposals shared with U.S. envoys and stalled rounds in Geneva and elsewhere, have produced no breakthroughs, while ongoing military activity and maximalist positions from Moscow continue to block progress. With only days remaining before the deadline, the timeline leaves insufficient room for finalizing a comprehensive agreement that meets both sides' stated conditions. Rare developments capable of shifting this outcome include an unforeseen last-minute concession or direct leader-level intervention yielding a framework document, though historical patterns indicate such rapid resolution remains improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<1% khả năng
$261,019 KL.
$261,019 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% khả năng
$261,019 KL.
$261,019 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent stalemate in U.S.-brokered talks, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related commitments, underpins traders' near-certain view that Ukraine and Russia will not sign a peace deal by August 31. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including proposals shared with U.S. envoys and stalled rounds in Geneva and elsewhere, have produced no breakthroughs, while ongoing military activity and maximalist positions from Moscow continue to block progress. With only days remaining before the deadline, the timeline leaves insufficient room for finalizing a comprehensive agreement that meets both sides' stated conditions. Rare developments capable of shifting this outcome include an unforeseen last-minute concession or direct leader-level intervention yielding a framework document, though historical patterns indicate such rapid resolution remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Khối lượng
$261,019Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent stalemate in U.S.-brokered talks, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related commitments, underpins traders' near-certain view that Ukraine and Russia will not sign a peace deal by August 31. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including proposals shared with U.S. envoys and stalled rounds in Geneva and elsewhere, have produced no breakthroughs, while ongoing military activity and maximalist positions from Moscow continue to block progress. With only days remaining before the deadline, the timeline leaves insufficient room for finalizing a comprehensive agreement that meets both sides' stated conditions. Rare developments capable of shifting this outcome include an unforeseen last-minute concession or direct leader-level intervention yielding a framework document, though historical patterns indicate such rapid resolution remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$261,019Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent stalemate in U.S.-brokered talks, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related commitments, underpins traders' near-certain view that Ukraine and Russia will not sign a peace deal by August 31. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including proposals shared with U.S. envoys and stalled rounds in Geneva and elsewhere, have produced no breakthroughs, while ongoing military activity and maximalist positions from Moscow continue to block progress. With only days remaining before the deadline, the timeline leaves insufficient room for finalizing a comprehensive agreement that meets both sides' stated conditions. Rare developments capable of shifting this outcome include an unforeseen last-minute concession or direct leader-level intervention yielding a framework document, though historical patterns indicate such rapid resolution remains improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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