Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 65 mph and located roughly 400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane while tracking west-northwest toward the Hawaiian Islands. Latest model runs and NHC guidance show the center passing near or just south of the Big Island on Saturday without a direct landfall, limiting the chance it crosses the coastline at hurricane strength. A mid-level ridge is steering the system on this path, with any slight southward shift reducing the probability of the center making landfall while still allowing hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall impacts. Historical rarity of direct Hawaiian hurricane landfalls further supports trader consensus favoring no. Updated forecasts and intensity guidance expected through the weekend remain key watchpoints.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
26% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 19, 2026
26% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 19, 2026
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 65 mph and located roughly 400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane while tracking west-northwest toward the Hawaiian Islands. Latest model runs and NHC guidance show the center passing near or just south of the Big Island on Saturday without a direct landfall, limiting the chance it crosses the coastline at hurricane strength. A mid-level ridge is steering the system on this path, with any slight southward shift reducing the probability of the center making landfall while still allowing hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall impacts. Historical rarity of direct Hawaiian hurricane landfalls further supports trader consensus favoring no. Updated forecasts and intensity guidance expected through the weekend remain key watchpoints.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,480Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 65 mph and located roughly 400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane while tracking west-northwest toward the Hawaiian Islands. Latest model runs and NHC guidance show the center passing near or just south of the Big Island on Saturday without a direct landfall, limiting the chance it crosses the coastline at hurricane strength. A mid-level ridge is steering the system on this path, with any slight southward shift reducing the probability of the center making landfall while still allowing hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall impacts. Historical rarity of direct Hawaiian hurricane landfalls further supports trader consensus favoring no. Updated forecasts and intensity guidance expected through the weekend remain key watchpoints.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Khối lượng
$3,480Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 65 mph and located roughly 400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane while tracking west-northwest toward the Hawaiian Islands. Latest model runs and NHC guidance show the center passing near or just south of the Big Island on Saturday without a direct landfall, limiting the chance it crosses the coastline at hurricane strength. A mid-level ridge is steering the system on this path, with any slight southward shift reducing the probability of the center making landfall while still allowing hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall impacts. Historical rarity of direct Hawaiian hurricane landfalls further supports trader consensus favoring no. Updated forecasts and intensity guidance expected through the weekend remain key watchpoints.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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