US-Iran tensions center on stalled implementation of the June 2026 MoU that ended months of strikes, with the 60-day negotiation window expiring in mid-August without a nuclear or sanctions accord. Traders see invasion risk as low through 2027 because the Trump administration has prioritized economic tools, including expanded secondary sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, alongside indirect diplomacy via Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent statements emphasize regime pressure through financial isolation rather than ground operations, consistent with historical reluctance for large-scale invasions and the high costs of such escalation. Ongoing indirect talks and pauses in strikes reinforce the market's view that full-scale military action remains unlikely absent a major new trigger.