The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through 2026 military strikes, leadership losses, and widespread protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following early-year U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, the system consolidated under hardline successors and the IRGC while weathering subsequent economic shocks from renewed sanctions and restricted oil exports. Recent measures, including intensified U.S. sanctions in late August and ongoing currency and supply strains, have produced hardship and isolated unrest but no nationwide mobilization capable of fracturing security forces or elite cohesion. Historical patterns and the regime’s coercive capacity suggest that short-term survival remains the baseline, with any transition likely requiring sustained internal fragmentation beyond the current resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
7% khả năng
$25,625,121 KL.
$25,625,121 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
7% khả năng
$25,625,121 KL.
$25,625,121 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through 2026 military strikes, leadership losses, and widespread protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following early-year U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, the system consolidated under hardline successors and the IRGC while weathering subsequent economic shocks from renewed sanctions and restricted oil exports. Recent measures, including intensified U.S. sanctions in late August and ongoing currency and supply strains, have produced hardship and isolated unrest but no nationwide mobilization capable of fracturing security forces or elite cohesion. Historical patterns and the regime’s coercive capacity suggest that short-term survival remains the baseline, with any transition likely requiring sustained internal fragmentation beyond the current resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$25,625,121Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through 2026 military strikes, leadership losses, and widespread protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following early-year U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, the system consolidated under hardline successors and the IRGC while weathering subsequent economic shocks from renewed sanctions and restricted oil exports. Recent measures, including intensified U.S. sanctions in late August and ongoing currency and supply strains, have produced hardship and isolated unrest but no nationwide mobilization capable of fracturing security forces or elite cohesion. Historical patterns and the regime’s coercive capacity suggest that short-term survival remains the baseline, with any transition likely requiring sustained internal fragmentation beyond the current resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$25,625,121Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through 2026 military strikes, leadership losses, and widespread protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following early-year U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, the system consolidated under hardline successors and the IRGC while weathering subsequent economic shocks from renewed sanctions and restricted oil exports. Recent measures, including intensified U.S. sanctions in late August and ongoing currency and supply strains, have produced hardship and isolated unrest but no nationwide mobilization capable of fracturing security forces or elite cohesion. Historical patterns and the regime’s coercive capacity suggest that short-term survival remains the baseline, with any transition likely requiring sustained internal fragmentation beyond the current resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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