Israel maintains a security zone in southern Lebanon under a fragile June 2026 framework agreement that requires Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control in designated areas, yet implementation talks have stalled. In mid-August, Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh district killed at least 11 people after Hezbollah actions wounded Israeli soldiers, marking one of the deadliest incidents since the truce. As of early September, IDF operations cleared tunnels and infrastructure around the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge while conducting targeted responses to perceived threats. Hezbollah has largely avoided major retaliation, though both sides accuse each other of violations. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the risk of escalation from incidents in the security zone continue to shape assessments of further military action.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$191,257 KL.
Sep 3, 2026
September 3
63%
September 4
99%
September 5
56%
September 6
24%
September 7
50%
September 8
49%
September 9
51%
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51%
September 11
51%
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September 13
50%
September 14
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September 20
47%
September 21
51%
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51%
September 23
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48%
September 25
50%
September 26
41%
September 27
51%
September 28
50%
September 29
47%
September 30
67%
$191,257 KL.
September 3
$7,619 KL.
63%
September 4
$494 KL.
99%
September 5
$113 KL.
56%
September 6
$17,121 KL.
24%
September 7
$0 KL.
50%
September 8
$0 KL.
49%
September 9
$0 KL.
51%
September 10
$13,064 KL.
51%
September 11
$0 KL.
51%
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$0 KL.
50%
September 13
$10,674 KL.
50%
September 14
$33,998 KL.
47%
September 15
$0 KL.
51%
September 16
$9,330 KL.
49%
September 17
$0 KL.
51%
September 18
$0 KL.
50%
September 19
$25,307 KL.
45%
September 20
$8,162 KL.
47%
September 21
$0 KL.
51%
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$0 KL.
51%
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$0 KL.
50%
September 24
$0 KL.
48%
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$0 KL.
50%
September 26
$35,655 KL.
41%
September 27
$0 KL.
51%
September 28
$0 KL.
50%
September 29
$0 KL.
47%
September 30
$29,720 KL.
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a security zone in southern Lebanon under a fragile June 2026 framework agreement that requires Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control in designated areas, yet implementation talks have stalled. In mid-August, Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh district killed at least 11 people after Hezbollah actions wounded Israeli soldiers, marking one of the deadliest incidents since the truce. As of early September, IDF operations cleared tunnels and infrastructure around the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge while conducting targeted responses to perceived threats. Hezbollah has largely avoided major retaliation, though both sides accuse each other of violations. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the risk of escalation from incidents in the security zone continue to shape assessments of further military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$191,257Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a security zone in southern Lebanon under a fragile June 2026 framework agreement that requires Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control in designated areas, yet implementation talks have stalled. In mid-August, Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh district killed at least 11 people after Hezbollah actions wounded Israeli soldiers, marking one of the deadliest incidents since the truce. As of early September, IDF operations cleared tunnels and infrastructure around the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge while conducting targeted responses to perceived threats. Hezbollah has largely avoided major retaliation, though both sides accuse each other of violations. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the risk of escalation from incidents in the security zone continue to shape assessments of further military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$191,257Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains a security zone in southern Lebanon under a fragile June 2026 framework agreement that requires Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control in designated areas, yet implementation talks have stalled. In mid-August, Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh district killed at least 11 people after Hezbollah actions wounded Israeli soldiers, marking one of the deadliest incidents since the truce. As of early September, IDF operations cleared tunnels and infrastructure around the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge while conducting targeted responses to perceived threats. Hezbollah has largely avoided major retaliation, though both sides accuse each other of violations. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the risk of escalation from incidents in the security zone continue to shape assessments of further military action.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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