Russia has conducted repeated large-scale missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and its region throughout summer and into early September 2026, often using ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and jet-powered drones that have damaged residential buildings, infrastructure, and military-related sites while causing civilian casualties. These attacks form part of a sustained air campaign aimed at energy facilities, logistics, and defense targets, coinciding with Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia and straining Kyiv's air defenses. Recent developments include strikes on airports and the SBU headquarters linked to upcoming U.S. envoy visits, followed by a Kremlin-announced three-day pause on capital strikes during negotiations involving Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trader sentiment reflects this pattern of near-daily barrages interrupted by diplomatic windows, with upcoming envoy meetings and any shifts in Russian operational tempo or Ukrainian responses likely to influence short-term probabilities for specific dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Russia target Kyiv on...?
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
$27,740 KL.
Sep 5, 2026
September 5
2%
September 6
3%
September 7
8%
September 8
67%
September 9
74%
September 10
72%
September 11
71%
September 12
68%
September 13
71%
September 14
59%
September 15
58%
September 16
56%
September 17
56%
September 18
66%
September 19
57%
September 20
61%
September 21
56%
September 22
60%
September 23
56%
September 24
58%
September 25
61%
September 26
61%
September 27
65%
September 28
63%
September 29
68%
September 30
62%
$27,740 KL.
September 5
$9,130 KL.
2%
September 6
$6,232 KL.
3%
September 7
$3,577 KL.
8%
September 8
$482 KL.
67%
September 9
$116 KL.
74%
September 10
$56 KL.
72%
September 11
$28 KL.
71%
September 12
$41 KL.
68%
September 13
$28 KL.
71%
September 14
$25 KL.
59%
September 15
$41 KL.
58%
September 16
$25 KL.
56%
September 17
$45 KL.
56%
September 18
$35 KL.
66%
September 19
$28 KL.
57%
September 20
$743 KL.
61%
September 21
$47 KL.
56%
September 22
$27 KL.
60%
September 23
$47 KL.
56%
September 24
$27 KL.
58%
September 25
$28 KL.
61%
September 26
$107 KL.
61%
September 27
$27 KL.
65%
September 28
$52 KL.
63%
September 29
$248 KL.
68%
September 30
$97 KL.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia has conducted repeated large-scale missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and its region throughout summer and into early September 2026, often using ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and jet-powered drones that have damaged residential buildings, infrastructure, and military-related sites while causing civilian casualties. These attacks form part of a sustained air campaign aimed at energy facilities, logistics, and defense targets, coinciding with Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia and straining Kyiv's air defenses. Recent developments include strikes on airports and the SBU headquarters linked to upcoming U.S. envoy visits, followed by a Kremlin-announced three-day pause on capital strikes during negotiations involving Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trader sentiment reflects this pattern of near-daily barrages interrupted by diplomatic windows, with upcoming envoy meetings and any shifts in Russian operational tempo or Ukrainian responses likely to influence short-term probabilities for specific dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Khối lượng
$27,740Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia has conducted repeated large-scale missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and its region throughout summer and into early September 2026, often using ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and jet-powered drones that have damaged residential buildings, infrastructure, and military-related sites while causing civilian casualties. These attacks form part of a sustained air campaign aimed at energy facilities, logistics, and defense targets, coinciding with Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia and straining Kyiv's air defenses. Recent developments include strikes on airports and the SBU headquarters linked to upcoming U.S. envoy visits, followed by a Kremlin-announced three-day pause on capital strikes during negotiations involving Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trader sentiment reflects this pattern of near-daily barrages interrupted by diplomatic windows, with upcoming envoy meetings and any shifts in Russian operational tempo or Ukrainian responses likely to influence short-term probabilities for specific dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$27,740Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Russia has conducted repeated large-scale missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and its region throughout summer and into early September 2026, often using ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and jet-powered drones that have damaged residential buildings, infrastructure, and military-related sites while causing civilian casualties. These attacks form part of a sustained air campaign aimed at energy facilities, logistics, and defense targets, coinciding with Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia and straining Kyiv's air defenses. Recent developments include strikes on airports and the SBU headquarters linked to upcoming U.S. envoy visits, followed by a Kremlin-announced three-day pause on capital strikes during negotiations involving Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trader sentiment reflects this pattern of near-daily barrages interrupted by diplomatic windows, with upcoming envoy meetings and any shifts in Russian operational tempo or Ukrainian responses likely to influence short-term probabilities for specific dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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