Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable large-scale military mobilization or diplomatic ultimatum in the past 30 days. Recent activity centers on Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, which tested reservist mobilization, supply relocation, and communications resilience against potential PRC pressure, alongside continued PRC maritime enforcement patrols and ADIZ incursions that remain below levels signaling imminent conflict. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 noted no fixed PRC timeline for unification by force, consistent with analyses highlighting PLA readiness gaps, high operational costs, and preference for coercive grey-zone measures over amphibious assault. While sudden escalation from miscalculation or unforeseen events remains possible, the compressed resolution window and lack of supporting indicators underpin the current market consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
<1% khả năng
$1,945,204 KL.
$1,945,204 KL.
Sep 29, 2026
<1% khả năng
$1,945,204 KL.
$1,945,204 KL.
Sep 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable large-scale military mobilization or diplomatic ultimatum in the past 30 days. Recent activity centers on Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, which tested reservist mobilization, supply relocation, and communications resilience against potential PRC pressure, alongside continued PRC maritime enforcement patrols and ADIZ incursions that remain below levels signaling imminent conflict. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 noted no fixed PRC timeline for unification by force, consistent with analyses highlighting PLA readiness gaps, high operational costs, and preference for coercive grey-zone measures over amphibious assault. While sudden escalation from miscalculation or unforeseen events remains possible, the compressed resolution window and lack of supporting indicators underpin the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,945,204Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable large-scale military mobilization or diplomatic ultimatum in the past 30 days. Recent activity centers on Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, which tested reservist mobilization, supply relocation, and communications resilience against potential PRC pressure, alongside continued PRC maritime enforcement patrols and ADIZ incursions that remain below levels signaling imminent conflict. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 noted no fixed PRC timeline for unification by force, consistent with analyses highlighting PLA readiness gaps, high operational costs, and preference for coercive grey-zone measures over amphibious assault. While sudden escalation from miscalculation or unforeseen events remains possible, the compressed resolution window and lack of supporting indicators underpin the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,945,204Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable large-scale military mobilization or diplomatic ultimatum in the past 30 days. Recent activity centers on Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, which tested reservist mobilization, supply relocation, and communications resilience against potential PRC pressure, alongside continued PRC maritime enforcement patrols and ADIZ incursions that remain below levels signaling imminent conflict. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 noted no fixed PRC timeline for unification by force, consistent with analyses highlighting PLA readiness gaps, high operational costs, and preference for coercive grey-zone measures over amphibious assault. While sudden escalation from miscalculation or unforeseen events remains possible, the compressed resolution window and lack of supporting indicators underpin the current market consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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