China's Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market reflects trader focus on softening momentum after Q2's 4.3% print, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and property sector drag that offset resilient exports. July activity data undershot expectations across industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to flag early-Q3 growth near 4%, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities to expand demand and meet the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds cluster around 4.3-4.9%, consistent with analyst consensus for modest Q3 stabilization before the October 19 release, though persistent demand imbalances and any delays in policy implementation introduce downside risks to the leading 4.3-4.6% band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4.3-4.6% 45%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 18.5%
3.7-4.0% 4.5%
$33,567 KL.
$33,567 KL.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
4%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
45%
4.6-4.9%
34%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 45%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 18.5%
3.7-4.0% 4.5%
$33,567 KL.
$33,567 KL.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,297 KL.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 KL.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,326 KL.
4%
4.0-4.3%
$2,404 KL.
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,622 KL.
45%
4.6-4.9%
$8,873 KL.
34%
4.9-5.2%
$3,425 KL.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,537 KL.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,390 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market reflects trader focus on softening momentum after Q2's 4.3% print, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and property sector drag that offset resilient exports. July activity data undershot expectations across industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to flag early-Q3 growth near 4%, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities to expand demand and meet the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds cluster around 4.3-4.9%, consistent with analyst consensus for modest Q3 stabilization before the October 19 release, though persistent demand imbalances and any delays in policy implementation introduce downside risks to the leading 4.3-4.6% band.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Thị trường mở: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Khối lượng
$33,567Ngày kết thúc
Oct 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market reflects trader focus on softening momentum after Q2's 4.3% print, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and property sector drag that offset resilient exports. July activity data undershot expectations across industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to flag early-Q3 growth near 4%, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities to expand demand and meet the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds cluster around 4.3-4.9%, consistent with analyst consensus for modest Q3 stabilization before the October 19 release, though persistent demand imbalances and any delays in policy implementation introduce downside risks to the leading 4.3-4.6% band.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Khối lượng
$33,567Ngày kết thúc
Oct 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...China's Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market reflects trader focus on softening momentum after Q2's 4.3% print, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and property sector drag that offset resilient exports. July activity data undershot expectations across industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to flag early-Q3 growth near 4%, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities to expand demand and meet the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds cluster around 4.3-4.9%, consistent with analyst consensus for modest Q3 stabilization before the October 19 release, though persistent demand imbalances and any delays in policy implementation introduce downside risks to the leading 4.3-4.6% band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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