China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People's Congress alongside the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, anchors trader expectations near the midpoint of that range. Consensus forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and others cluster at 4.4–4.7%, reflecting resilience from high-tech exports and manufacturing investment offset by persistent property-sector drag, subdued consumption, and a gradual rebalancing toward domestic demand. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% growth that cooled in Q2 amid weak retail sales and fiscal support moderation, reinforcing the view that outcomes above 5% or below 4% face structural headwinds and policy buffers that make extreme deviations improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.1%
$876,819 KL.
$876,819 KL.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.1%
$876,819 KL.
$876,819 KL.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 KL.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 KL.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 KL.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$80,220 KL.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,722 KL.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$78,494 KL.
11%
6.0-7.0%
$83,563 KL.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 KL.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 KL.
1%
9.0%+
$115,508 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People's Congress alongside the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, anchors trader expectations near the midpoint of that range. Consensus forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and others cluster at 4.4–4.7%, reflecting resilience from high-tech exports and manufacturing investment offset by persistent property-sector drag, subdued consumption, and a gradual rebalancing toward domestic demand. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% growth that cooled in Q2 amid weak retail sales and fiscal support moderation, reinforcing the view that outcomes above 5% or below 4% face structural headwinds and policy buffers that make extreme deviations improbable.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$876,819Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People's Congress alongside the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, anchors trader expectations near the midpoint of that range. Consensus forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and others cluster at 4.4–4.7%, reflecting resilience from high-tech exports and manufacturing investment offset by persistent property-sector drag, subdued consumption, and a gradual rebalancing toward domestic demand. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% growth that cooled in Q2 amid weak retail sales and fiscal support moderation, reinforcing the view that outcomes above 5% or below 4% face structural headwinds and policy buffers that make extreme deviations improbable.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$876,819Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People's Congress alongside the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, anchors trader expectations near the midpoint of that range. Consensus forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and others cluster at 4.4–4.7%, reflecting resilience from high-tech exports and manufacturing investment offset by persistent property-sector drag, subdued consumption, and a gradual rebalancing toward domestic demand. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% growth that cooled in Q2 amid weak retail sales and fiscal support moderation, reinforcing the view that outcomes above 5% or below 4% face structural headwinds and policy buffers that make extreme deviations improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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