Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in Washington's 3rd congressional district race, supported by her established moderate record, cross-aisle appeal, and name recognition in a swing district that narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024. Recent primary results from August 4 advanced Perez and Republican challenger John Braun to the November general election after close initial counts. Polling averages show a toss-up contest, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic Party an 84.5% implied probability, consistent with incumbent advantages and fundraising edges in similar competitive seats. Braun's state Senate leadership provides a strong Republican path, but structural factors favor Perez retention absent major shifts before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWA-03 House Election Winner
WA-03 House Election Winner
$32,825 KL.
$32,825 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
13%
$32,825 KL.
$32,825 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,518 KL.
85%
Republican Party
$10,307 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in Washington's 3rd congressional district race, supported by her established moderate record, cross-aisle appeal, and name recognition in a swing district that narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024. Recent primary results from August 4 advanced Perez and Republican challenger John Braun to the November general election after close initial counts. Polling averages show a toss-up contest, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic Party an 84.5% implied probability, consistent with incumbent advantages and fundraising edges in similar competitive seats. Braun's state Senate leadership provides a strong Republican path, but structural factors favor Perez retention absent major shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$32,825Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in Washington's 3rd congressional district race, supported by her established moderate record, cross-aisle appeal, and name recognition in a swing district that narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024. Recent primary results from August 4 advanced Perez and Republican challenger John Braun to the November general election after close initial counts. Polling averages show a toss-up contest, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic Party an 84.5% implied probability, consistent with incumbent advantages and fundraising edges in similar competitive seats. Braun's state Senate leadership provides a strong Republican path, but structural factors favor Perez retention absent major shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,825Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in Washington's 3rd congressional district race, supported by her established moderate record, cross-aisle appeal, and name recognition in a swing district that narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024. Recent primary results from August 4 advanced Perez and Republican challenger John Braun to the November general election after close initial counts. Polling averages show a toss-up contest, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic Party an 84.5% implied probability, consistent with incumbent advantages and fundraising edges in similar competitive seats. Braun's state Senate leadership provides a strong Republican path, but structural factors favor Perez retention absent major shifts before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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