Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Alaska’s at-large House race ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Recent polling shows Begich leading independent Bill Hill by single digits in head-to-head matchups, reflecting the state’s Republican presidential lean and limited Democratic field after Matt Schultz withdrew in July. Hill has drawn some national support and endorsements but trails in fundraising momentum and name recognition. The open primary format and ranked-choice general election introduce modest uncertainty, yet trader consensus assigns Republicans an 81% implied probability of retaining the seat given these structural and recent factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAK-AL House Election Winner
AK-AL House Election Winner
$31,205 KL.
$31,205 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
82%
Democratic Party
18%
$31,205 KL.
$31,205 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,686 KL.
82%
Democratic Party
$24,519 KL.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Alaska’s at-large House race ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Recent polling shows Begich leading independent Bill Hill by single digits in head-to-head matchups, reflecting the state’s Republican presidential lean and limited Democratic field after Matt Schultz withdrew in July. Hill has drawn some national support and endorsements but trails in fundraising momentum and name recognition. The open primary format and ranked-choice general election introduce modest uncertainty, yet trader consensus assigns Republicans an 81% implied probability of retaining the seat given these structural and recent factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,205Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Alaska’s at-large House race ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Recent polling shows Begich leading independent Bill Hill by single digits in head-to-head matchups, reflecting the state’s Republican presidential lean and limited Democratic field after Matt Schultz withdrew in July. Hill has drawn some national support and endorsements but trails in fundraising momentum and name recognition. The open primary format and ranked-choice general election introduce modest uncertainty, yet trader consensus assigns Republicans an 81% implied probability of retaining the seat given these structural and recent factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$31,205Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Alaska’s at-large House race ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Recent polling shows Begich leading independent Bill Hill by single digits in head-to-head matchups, reflecting the state’s Republican presidential lean and limited Democratic field after Matt Schultz withdrew in July. Hill has drawn some national support and endorsements but trails in fundraising momentum and name recognition. The open primary format and ranked-choice general election introduce modest uncertainty, yet trader consensus assigns Republicans an 81% implied probability of retaining the seat given these structural and recent factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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