**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật9% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
9% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,475Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$7,475Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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