Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant position in 2026 first-round polling, consistently placing him in the low-to-mid 30s percent behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, drives the strong trader consensus around his second-place finish. The Liberal Party's July nomination of the senator as its candidate consolidated right-wing support following his father's endorsement and Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders, including Renan Santos of the Mission Party and Ronaldo Caiado, remain in the low single digits in recent surveys from Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha, reflecting a fragmented field outside the top two. Earlier 2026 controversies around Flávio, including leaked audio and a brief family rift, did not materially alter his polling lead over secondary candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching, scheduled campaign events and further polling releases represent the primary near-term variables.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.3%
Renan Santos 4.5%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,896,123 KL.
$4,896,123 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.3%
Renan Santos 4.5%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,896,123 KL.
$4,896,123 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant position in 2026 first-round polling, consistently placing him in the low-to-mid 30s percent behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, drives the strong trader consensus around his second-place finish. The Liberal Party's July nomination of the senator as its candidate consolidated right-wing support following his father's endorsement and Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders, including Renan Santos of the Mission Party and Ronaldo Caiado, remain in the low single digits in recent surveys from Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha, reflecting a fragmented field outside the top two. Earlier 2026 controversies around Flávio, including leaked audio and a brief family rift, did not materially alter his polling lead over secondary candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching, scheduled campaign events and further polling releases represent the primary near-term variables.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
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