Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU near 20-23 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 16 percent, and SPD at 11-12 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share justifies across the 78 districts. Current polling distributions and district-level simulations point to elevated overhang relative to the 159 seats recorded in 2023, supporting trader consensus around larger totals. The narrow margins among leading parties and uncertain direct-mandate outcomes in competitive boroughs keep the probability mass concentrated on the upper ranges ahead of election night.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật163+ 27%
148–152 21%
<143 20%
143–147 20%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<143
20%
143–147
20%
148–152
21%
153–157
19%
158–162
19%
163+
27%
163+ 27%
148–152 21%
<143 20%
143–147 20%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 KL.
20%
143–147
$0 KL.
20%
148–152
$0 KL.
21%
153–157
$0 KL.
19%
158–162
$0 KL.
19%
163+
$0 KL.
27%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU near 20-23 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 16 percent, and SPD at 11-12 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share justifies across the 78 districts. Current polling distributions and district-level simulations point to elevated overhang relative to the 159 seats recorded in 2023, supporting trader consensus around larger totals. The narrow margins among leading parties and uncertain direct-mandate outcomes in competitive boroughs keep the probability mass concentrated on the upper ranges ahead of election night.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU near 20-23 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 16 percent, and SPD at 11-12 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share justifies across the 78 districts. Current polling distributions and district-level simulations point to elevated overhang relative to the 159 seats recorded in 2023, supporting trader consensus around larger totals. The narrow margins among leading parties and uncertain direct-mandate outcomes in competitive boroughs keep the probability mass concentrated on the upper ranges ahead of election night.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU near 20-23 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 16 percent, and SPD at 11-12 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share justifies across the 78 districts. Current polling distributions and district-level simulations point to elevated overhang relative to the 159 seats recorded in 2023, supporting trader consensus around larger totals. The narrow margins among leading parties and uncertain direct-mandate outcomes in competitive boroughs keep the probability mass concentrated on the upper ranges ahead of election night.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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