Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko from the nationwide party-list ballot on August 10, 2026, after a Rodina lawsuit, following initial Central Election Commission registration in July. This exclusion from the proportional representation component of the September 18–20 State Duma elections means the party cannot receive list votes or clear the 5% threshold required for seats, aligning with its consistent sub-5% results in every national election since 1999 amid documented administrative barriers, candidate disqualifications, and limited media access. Traders view reversal as improbable given the tight timeline and prior appeal outcomes. Remaining single-member constituency candidacies do not affect the list-based market resolution. Late reinstatement via Constitutional Court or procedural reversal remains the primary, albeit low-probability, factor that could shift the outcome before voting concludes.