Recent polling trends position the AfD as the clear frontrunner in Sunday's Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, yet trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a 15-20% vote share for the party. This reflects assessments of stable but contained support, persistent undecided voters around 26% in the latest surveys, and the impact of smaller parties hovering near or below the 5% threshold. The CDU trails significantly at roughly 23%, while the firewall policy maintained by other parties limits coalition options and raises stakes for AfD performance. Late-campaign developments, including consistent leads without an absolute majority in projections, shape expectations for a moderate rather than dominant result amid typical final-week volatility in eastern state contests.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAfD 15-20% 51%
AfD 25%+ 27%
AfD 20-25% 20%
AfD 10-15% 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 6, 2026
AfD 25%+
27%
AfD 20-25%
20%
AfD 15-20%
59%
AfD 10-15%
15%
AfD <10%
2%
Other
1%
AfD 15-20% 51%
AfD 25%+ 27%
AfD 20-25% 20%
AfD 10-15% 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 6, 2026
AfD 25%+
$59 KL.
27%
AfD 20-25%
$170 KL.
20%
AfD 15-20%
$295 KL.
59%
AfD 10-15%
$251 KL.
15%
AfD <10%
$59 KL.
2%
Other
$507 KL.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling trends position the AfD as the clear frontrunner in Sunday's Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, yet trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a 15-20% vote share for the party. This reflects assessments of stable but contained support, persistent undecided voters around 26% in the latest surveys, and the impact of smaller parties hovering near or below the 5% threshold. The CDU trails significantly at roughly 23%, while the firewall policy maintained by other parties limits coalition options and raises stakes for AfD performance. Late-campaign developments, including consistent leads without an absolute majority in projections, shape expectations for a moderate rather than dominant result amid typical final-week volatility in eastern state contests.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,341Ngày kết thúc
Sep 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling trends position the AfD as the clear frontrunner in Sunday's Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, yet trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a 15-20% vote share for the party. This reflects assessments of stable but contained support, persistent undecided voters around 26% in the latest surveys, and the impact of smaller parties hovering near or below the 5% threshold. The CDU trails significantly at roughly 23%, while the firewall policy maintained by other parties limits coalition options and raises stakes for AfD performance. Late-campaign developments, including consistent leads without an absolute majority in projections, shape expectations for a moderate rather than dominant result amid typical final-week volatility in eastern state contests.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Khối lượng
$1,341Ngày kết thúc
Sep 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling trends position the AfD as the clear frontrunner in Sunday's Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, yet trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a 15-20% vote share for the party. This reflects assessments of stable but contained support, persistent undecided voters around 26% in the latest surveys, and the impact of smaller parties hovering near or below the 5% threshold. The CDU trails significantly at roughly 23%, while the firewall policy maintained by other parties limits coalition options and raises stakes for AfD performance. Late-campaign developments, including consistent leads without an absolute majority in projections, shape expectations for a moderate rather than dominant result amid typical final-week volatility in eastern state contests.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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