Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party lawsuit, prompting the Central Election Commission to exclude the party’s federal list. The liberal opposition group, which openly advocates a ceasefire in Ukraine, has not cleared the 5% proportional threshold in any national election since 1999 and typically polls at 1–3% amid restricted media access and documented procedural barriers. Its brief registration earlier in the summer allowed some single-mandate candidacies, yet the federal exclusion eliminates any realistic path to proportional representation. Traders assign a 99.1% probability to “No” because reinstatement would require successful appeals to the Constitutional Court or other bodies within the narrow pre-election window, an outcome viewed as improbable given institutional patterns and the two-week timeline to voting.