North Korea’s tightly controlled political system and Kim Jong Un’s firm grip on the military, party apparatus, and nuclear command structure underpin traders’ overwhelming consensus that he will remain supreme leader through the end of 2026. Recent missile tests, ballistic deployments, and reappointment as State Affairs Commission president demonstrate continuity rather than transition. South Korean intelligence assessments note grooming of his daughter as a long-term heir but report no acute health crises or factional challenges that would force removal on this timeline. While near-term ouster remains improbable, credible but low-probability catalysts include sudden medical incapacitation, an internal military challenge, or major external shock capable of destabilizing regime cohesion before December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
4% khả năng
$194,468 KL.
$194,468 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
4% khả năng
$194,468 KL.
$194,468 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.North Korea’s tightly controlled political system and Kim Jong Un’s firm grip on the military, party apparatus, and nuclear command structure underpin traders’ overwhelming consensus that he will remain supreme leader through the end of 2026. Recent missile tests, ballistic deployments, and reappointment as State Affairs Commission president demonstrate continuity rather than transition. South Korean intelligence assessments note grooming of his daughter as a long-term heir but report no acute health crises or factional challenges that would force removal on this timeline. While near-term ouster remains improbable, credible but low-probability catalysts include sudden medical incapacitation, an internal military challenge, or major external shock capable of destabilizing regime cohesion before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$194,468Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.North Korea’s tightly controlled political system and Kim Jong Un’s firm grip on the military, party apparatus, and nuclear command structure underpin traders’ overwhelming consensus that he will remain supreme leader through the end of 2026. Recent missile tests, ballistic deployments, and reappointment as State Affairs Commission president demonstrate continuity rather than transition. South Korean intelligence assessments note grooming of his daughter as a long-term heir but report no acute health crises or factional challenges that would force removal on this timeline. While near-term ouster remains improbable, credible but low-probability catalysts include sudden medical incapacitation, an internal military challenge, or major external shock capable of destabilizing regime cohesion before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$194,468Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea’s tightly controlled political system and Kim Jong Un’s firm grip on the military, party apparatus, and nuclear command structure underpin traders’ overwhelming consensus that he will remain supreme leader through the end of 2026. Recent missile tests, ballistic deployments, and reappointment as State Affairs Commission president demonstrate continuity rather than transition. South Korean intelligence assessments note grooming of his daughter as a long-term heir but report no acute health crises or factional challenges that would force removal on this timeline. While near-term ouster remains improbable, credible but low-probability catalysts include sudden medical incapacitation, an internal military challenge, or major external shock capable of destabilizing regime cohesion before December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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