Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority in the February 2026 lower house election, providing stable legislative control and reducing any immediate incentive for another dissolution before the four-year term ends. The ruling coalition’s position, combined with the absence of major policy gridlock or coalition fractures in recent months, underpins traders’ strong consensus against a 2026 snap election. Upper house elections are not due until 2028, and no scheduled votes or constitutional deadlines require early action. While an unforeseen crisis such as a sudden loss of majority, leadership change, or acute security development could prompt reconsideration, current conditions point to continuity through year-end.